Patriots vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

If we like the Bengals to put up points on the Patriots, then we should certainly be betting overs too, especially in the receiving game. Those overs look good if Cincinnati is playing well, since they're likely the reason why, but they're also still good in a trailing script since the Bengals will need to pass to get back into the game. At first glance, Ja'Marr Chase being out might make you feel hesitant to invest in Tee Higgins, assuming the opponent can put more of its energy into stopping Higgins. But the Patriots rank dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA. Against five "true" WR1s this season, New England has allowed an average of six catches for 90 yards, with five of the seven putting up at least 6/97. That's pretty close to what Tee Higgins has done in his last five games without Chase, at 6.2 catches for 102 yards, with three of those five games at 114 yards or better. I'm taking one shot at a higher alternate line and playing 90+ receiving yards for Tee at +240 (bet365). Higgins has five TDs in his last five games, all with Flacco, with at least one score in all but one of those games. A higher scoring game obviously means more TD opportunities, so let's bet on another Higgins TD at +140 (Fanatics). You can combine the two for 90 yards and a score at +425 (DraftKings too). The Chase Brown angle is somewhat parallel. Brown has struggled as a runner this season but excelled as a pass catcher of late, largely because of the absence of a teammate. With third-down back Samaje Perine out the last couple games, Brown has been a workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps, way up from his usual. That's resulted in huge volume in the passing game: eight catches for 75 yards on 14 targets in one game, six for 28 on eight targets in the other. The Patriots have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing RBs this season because the run defense has been so strong, but they've actually allowed the most RB receptions. Seven RBs have caught at least five balls in a game, including eight each to similarly great receiving RBs DeVon Achane and Bijan Robinson. This one may actually be even better if it's Flacco, as much as he likes to check it down to his RBs. In nine starts this season, he's seen a RB catch five, six, eight, and eight passes. Take the over 4.5 on Chase Brown receptions at +100 (Fanatics), and this looks like a definite escalator spot in case the targets all pile up again. I'll play 6+ receptions (+175), seven (+320), and eight (+650), all at bet365. I like all of these Higgins and Brown props with either Bengals QB. If anything, I like the Higgins TD and Brown escalator even better with Flacco because he's been feeding both so much lately!

Already bet full on Hot Read but adding a tiny bet so you get the notification & logic: This game has already been a wild ride before it's even begun. I took Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw that line balloon as high as +9 in the next day when Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then the line bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle. Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like Burrow will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season and I'm going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays. This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and the Bengals have the guns to go blow for blow and save their season. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. It's not just 32nd in DVOA but now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean - any change is good. The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has been pretty bad too. Despite the 9–2 record, New England ranks bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. The Patriots are also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass. New England's offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn't run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Maye has played like an MVP this season but gets precious little help - and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him. The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking 3rd by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati's offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road. Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses. All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays. I love this spot for the Bengals, and I'm betting both the spread and the moneyline - but let's talk about when to bet it. The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now - or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has been lights out in his career as an underdog, too. If you're worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price, but I'll still like it either way. I'm also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, then Ravens again are tough, but they're also not as bad as they sound the way those teams are playing, and they're a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.

Already bet full on Hot Read but adding a tiny bet so you get the notification & logic: This game has already been a wild ride before it's even begun. I took Bengals +7 on the Hot Read, then saw that line balloon as high as +9 in the next day when Ja'Marr Chase was suspended for Spitgate. Then the line bounced right back the other way as Joe Burrow began practicing and looked like he might start. Now, as that remains uncertain, the line has settled right back in the middle. Chase is a real loss, of course, but Burrow would be an even bigger gain. It looks like Burrow will be listed as questionable and could even be something of a game-time decision, but I think this is one of the worst lines of the season and I'm going to like Cincinnati either way. I make it Patriots under a field goal if Burrow plays. This is a kitchen sink spot for the Bengals, now 3–7 with a daunting Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch up next, playing at home with their backs against the wall. The game shapes up as a shootout, and the Bengals have the guns to go blow for blow and save their season. We know how bad Cincinnati's defense is. It's not just 32nd in DVOA but now the worst ever defense measured by DVOA through 10 games. The only real good news is that defense is not sticky, and worst-ever can truly only regress to the mean - any change is good. The key in this matchup, though, is that the Patriots defense has been pretty bad too. Despite the 9–2 record, New England ranks bottom five both overall and against the pass in Defensive DVOA. The Patriots are also missing Milton Williams and potentially a few other names on the front seven. This pass defense is beatable, and the Bengals are ready to pass. New England's offense has been good but not great, fringe top 10 in many metrics. It hasn't run well all season and may not be able to hurt this bad run defense, so that makes things more volatile in the pass game and puts it all on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Maye has played like an MVP this season but gets precious little help - and if Burrow does return, he negates that QB advantage, but with better weapons around him. The Bengals have actually had the better offense of late, ranking 3rd by DVOA over the last six games. Cincinnati's offense also has huge home-road splits, top five at home versus bottom five on the road. Over their last 12 home games, the Bengals average a whopping 36.8 PPG, with all but one of those games at 30 points or better. Joe Flacco has been terrific at home too, scoring 33, 38, and 42 with Cincinnati and so far this season winning home games against the Steelers and Packers, nearly a third til a last-second Bears loss, and two other one-point losses. All signs point to this being a shootout, and the Bengals have the better offense, the better weapons, and maybe now the better QB if Burrow plays. I love this spot for the Bengals, and I'm betting both the spread and the moneyline - but let's talk about when to bet it. The price at this point is a hedge, at Bengals +7 and +270 ML. If Burrow starts, that dips below the key number, so if you think Joe Cool plays, you should grab your ticket now - or wait and get confirmation that this is an even better spot for Cincinnati, despite a slightly worse number. Burrow has been lights out in his career as an underdog, too. If you're worried Burrow sits, you may want to wait to get confirmation of that too. Flacco back in should likely push this past Bengals +7 the other direction and buy a better price, but I'll still like it either way. I'm also nibbling the Bengals at +4000 to win the division (ESPN Bet). Those upcoming games against the Ravens, Bills, then Ravens again are tough, but they're also not as bad as they sound the way those teams are playing, and they're a direct opportunity to win against opponents Cincinnati is competing head-to-head with for a long-shot playoff berth.

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