Steelers vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - October 17, 2025

I realize this is a prop that 99% of people are already on the over for. Usually I can pinpoint a few overlooked angles the public is missing, but this one is simply a number I think is a bit too low based on the matchup. The Bengals have allowed seven different RBs to clear this number, and they struggle badly against yards after the catch. They’ve allowed a league-high +1.12 yards after the catch over expected per reception, making them prone to giving up chunk gains to backs in space. With EDGE Trey Hendrickson looking closer to doubtful, this could be the cleanest pocket Aaron Rodgers has had all year. Warren’s target rate jumps from 20% per route run (when Rodgers faces pressure) to 39% when Rodgers has a clean pocket. Rodgers is far more willing to check down in those situations and let Warren work in space. I also think Rodgers’ passing yards prop is too low in general, since all of his pass catchers excel after the catch, but the one offering the most value is Warren. I have his median closer to 21.5 with around a 61% chance to clear 16.5.

RGS wednesday show props

Jonnu ranks 9th in the NFL and 1st among all TEs in targets per game on screen passes (min. 2+ Games Played). He also leads all TEs in designed targets with 20 total…he’s played 1 less game than most TEs too. Why does this matter? Well, the Bengals have allowed the most yds/game (34.2) and most YAC off screen passes (11.8 YAC/Rec). Mike Tomlin referred to Jonnu as their “YAC” guy this week too. The Bengals have allowed some big games and long receptions to opposing TEs, 5 with 17+ yard catches: -Tucker Kraft 43 yds (24 long) -Sam LaPorta 92 yds (39 long) -Adam Trautman 32 yds (26 long) -Harold Fannin 63 yds (22 long) -David Njoku 37 yds (17 long) The Bengals lead the NFL in YAC allowed and PIT is w/o Calvin Austin. They already use 2-TE sets a ton & that could increase here in a great matchup. Jonnu should have the opportunity and the matchup doesn’t get much better.

Tomlin has been awful in Thursday night games, 2-8 SU on road last decade and 0-8 vs the division in his career. Pittsburgh is in a perfect spot after all the division injuries but they have played down to the competition for years so this just seems like a classic letdown spot

Profit boost

Tomlin

FD

Boosted

Chase Brown over 42.5 rush yds (-110 at 365, -130 at MGM) ... as given on Action Island Has faced a brutal schedule of opposing rush defenses PIT is either the easiest, or 2nd easiest matchup of the season for him depending how you slice it Run game has gotten better 4.0 ypc L3 games vs. 2.0 ypc first 3 games CIN leans toward man/gap schemes around 60/40 with Brown PIT is the worst of the seven defenses Brown has faced this year vs man/gap runs at nearly 5.1 ypc allowed The other 6 D’s allow 3.9 ypc vs these runs CIN should have more play volume thanks to underpossession (teams combine for 53 min TOP) My model is showing 13.5 carries for Brown, just needs 3.15 ypc at that number

Cuck chair

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Samaje Perine. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.33 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 2.13. The model believes there is a 62% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +130 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least -119.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@ChrisRaybon