Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order: Dolphins Win Hurts Chances for First Pick

Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order: Dolphins Win Hurts Chances for First Pick article feature image
Credit:

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Fan

  • We've projected the 2020 NFL Draft order in the wake of the Miami Dolphins' first win.
  • You'll find their updated chances to secure the first overall pick and more below.

The Tank4Tua campaign hit a road bump when the Miami Dolphins won their first game of 2019 with a 26-18 victory on the New York Jets this past Sunday.

The Dolphins had a 72.34% chance to land the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft heading into Week 9 according to our Bet Labs model, which simulates the season 10,000 times. The win drops those chances down to 43.18%.

The 0-8 Cincinnati Bengals are closing in on the lead, improving their chances from 14.74% last week to 23.04% as of Monday. Their decision to bench Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley coming out the bye also doesn’t bode well for the Dolphins maintaining a comfortable edge in the race to the bottom.

The 1-8 Washington Redskins also got a bump from 5.28% to 15.84%, as did the Jets from 3.57% to 11.15%.

Still, our model projects the Dolphins to finish with the lowest average wins (2.89), so not all hope is lost of them getting the first pick in a loaded quarterback class.

They have a soft schedule from Weeks 14-16 — at the Jets, at the Giants and vs. the Bengals — but should really only be potentially favored at home against Cincy. Then they wrap the season with a visit to Foxborough.


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Projected 2020 NFL Draft Order

We’ve projected the order of the first round of the 2020 draft based on the average draft position according to our sims. Note that ties were broken by average win projections.

  1. Miami Dolphins
  2. Cincinnati Bengals
  3. Washington Redskins
  4. New York Jets
  5. Atlanta Falcons
  6. New York Giants
  7. Denver Broncos
  8. Arizona Cardinals
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  10. Cleveland Browns
  11. Jacksonville Jaguars
  12. Detroit Lions
  13. Chicago Bears
  14. Tennessee Titans
  15. Oakland Raiders
  16. Los Angeles Chargers
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers
  18. Carolina Panthers
  19. Dallas Cowboys
  20. Philadelphia Eagles
  21. Indianapolis Colts
  22. Buffalo Bills
  23. Los Angeles Rams
  24. Minnesota Vikings
  25. Seattle Seahawks
  26. Houston Texans
  27. Green Bay Packers
  28. Kansas City Chiefs
  29. Baltimore Ravens
  30. New Orleans Saints
  31. San Francisco 49ers
  32. New England Patriots

Our Full 2020 NFL Draft Projections