Our Experts’ Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: 49ers vs. Seahawks Spread & Prop Bets
Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Homer, Russell Wilson
- Our betting experts have analyzed the latest Sunday Night Football betting odds -- both the spread and the player props -- and come up with three picks for 49ers at Seahawks that are offering betting value.
- The current odds for the game make the spread either Seahawks +3 or Seahawks +3.5, depending on the site you're looking at.
- Should you be betting on Seattle as home underdogs? Let's dive in to our Sunday Night Football. analysis
49ers at Seahawks Betting Odds & Picks
- Odds: 49ers -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The NFC’s No. 1 seed comes down to this matchup.
A 49ers win would lock it in. A Seahawks win would open it up for another team.
With the stakes in mind, our experts reveal how they’re betting Sunday Night Football, featuring Sean Koerner’s and Matthew Freedman’s spread picks as well as Koerner’s prop of the game.
Sean Koerner: Seahawks +3.5
The Seahawks come into this high-stakes game incredibly thin at running back. They recently lost Rashaad Penny to IR then Chris Carson (and even C.J. Prosise) just last week, forcing them to bring back Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.
The loss of Carson hurts, but it would be unwise for the market to make this cluster injury worth more than one point. It’s all going to fall on Russell Wilson’s shoulders, and as the likely MVP runner-up, he should be up to the task.
The market is all over the 49ers with 57% of the tickets and 60% of the money backing San Francisco as road a favorite at a critical number of -3.5 (see live public betting data here). I think the market has opened up a great value opportunity getting Wilson as a home dog. He’s only been one seven times over his career and he’s 6-1 against the spread.
With Jadeveon Clowney expected to play, I’ll lock Seahawks +3.5 in as my play of the week.
Koerner is 173-128-3 (57.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Matthew Freedman: Seahawks +3.5
Underdogs against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 10-4-1 against the spread (36.6%), and at CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks have a true home-field advantage with the famed “12th Man.”
Under Pete Carroll (since 2010), the Seahawks have scored 7.2 points more than their opponents at home. With that differential, they are No. 3 in the league, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Patriots in Foxborough and Aaron Rodgers-led Packers at Lambeau over that time.
With Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 48-34-3 ATS (14.1% ROI).
Freedman is 540-410-22 (56.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Koerner: Travis Homer Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I was actually eyeing over 39.5 rushing yards on this prop when it was first posted a couple days ago, making this the perfect example of how a player’s projection can evolve as the week goes on — especially a running back prop in a murky backfield situation.
It was unclear as how Lynch would look coming out of retirement. I speculated that he would mix in for only a handful of touches and that Homer would be more of a workhorse back for the Seahawks tonight. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has since reported that Lynch looked great in practice and is expected to get 10-15 carries tonight.
With this new information, I’ve updated Lynch’s projected carries to 12.2 and lowered Homer’s expected carries to nine.
I’d expect Homer to still dominate the passing work out of the backfield, which doesn’t help him in this particular prop market. As a result, I’m showing massive value on the under now with a 64% chance of hitting.
Some books are offering 39.5 and there’s a good chance they lower the number or the moneyline.
Here are my projections at every number in this range: