Antonia Gibson Player Prop Pick: Bet for Commanders vs Giants

Antonio Gibson is averaging career lows in yards per route run (1.03) and receptions per game (2.6) this season.

The Commanders' primary pass-catching back averages 22.0 yards per game this season but has gone under this prop in four of six games. In the two misses, Gibson recorded a 41-yard catch against the Bears and a 36-yard catch versus the Broncos. It's worth noting that both teams are in the top three of receiving yards against running backs. Therefore, I would put less weight into those games.

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Conversely, the New York Giants are the toughest matchup for opposing running backs through the air, ranking first in defensive DVOA vs. pass-catching backs. The G-Men have allowed an average of 3.50 targets and 15.1 yards per game against running backs, which is the lowest in the NFL. Only one of the past 16 running backs to face the Giants went over this prop, Christian McCaffrey.

The Giants' success against pass-catching backs is a product of their well-designed defensive schematics as they apply strategic pressure. Their frequent use of man coverage, the league's third-highest rate, and their fourth-highest blitz rate (38.1%) have compelled opposing teams' running backs to engage in more blocking.

Bobby Okereke, a recent addition to the Giants as a linebacker, has played a pivotal role in their triumph. Pro Football Focus has ranked him as the fifth-highest-graded linebacker in coverage.

Given the Giants' poor ground game, it would be wise for Washington to rely more on Brian Robinson than Gibson. Despite the low prop line, I still anticipate that Gibson will fall below his receiving total for the day.

Pick: Antonio Gibson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110 | DraftKings)