The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) and Minnesota Vikings (1-0) are set to face off on Sunday Night Football on September 14. Falcons vs Vikings kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn; SNF will be broadcast on NBC.
The Vikings are favored by -3.5 on the spread with the over/under set at 45. The Vikings are -185 moneyline favorites and the Falcons are +154 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Vikings predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Falcons vs Vikings Prediction
- Falcons vs Vikings pick: Falcons +3.5 (bet to +3)
My Falcons vs Vikings best bet is Falcons +3.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Vikings Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | +154 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | -185 |
Falcons vs Vikings Sunday Night Football Preview
After an opening drive TD on Monday Night Football, the Bears averaged just 3.2 yards per play and scored only three points over their next 10 offensive drives yet still only lost by three to the Vikings.
Meanwhile, the Falcons played well enough to win in Week 1, outgaining the Bucs 358-260 in yardage in a 23-20 loss. The Falcons are the top edge in our Week 2 Luck Rankings with a 113.1% Luck Gap and back-tested ATS win rate of 59.16%.
Quarterbacks who go up against a Brian Flores defense have to be able to handle the blitz. Flores' 14 blitzes in Week 1 were tied for the fourth-most, according to Pro Football Reference, and his 16.3 blitzes per game and 38.29% blitz rate led the NFL last season.
Enter Michael Penix Jr.
The No. 8 overall pick in 2023 out of Washington has been superb as a pro when the defense sends extra rushers.
On 13 blitzed dropbacks last week, Penix completed 9-of-13 passes for 128 yards and a TD — good for 9.8 yards per attempt and a 126.4 passer rating, according to PFF. Penix has yet to commit a turnover-worthy throw and has taken just one sack on 53 career dropbacks against the blitz, per PFF.
More impressively, Penix has done that despite missing Darnell Mooney in half of those games, but Mooney (shoulder) is off the injury report and is set to make his season debut after logging a full practice on Friday. Penix averaged 10.8 YPA when targeting Mooney in 2024.
Drake London (shoulder) is also off the injury report after logging a full practice on Friday. In Penix's four career starts, London is averaging a monstrous 7.5 receptions for 101.8 yards and 0.5 TDs.
The Falcons' defensive overhaul paid immediate dividends in Week 1, holding the Bucs to just 260 total yards and 4.6 yards per play.
Rookie No. 26 overall pick James Pearce Jr. led the team in pressures (four), while rookie third-round safety Xavier Watts (96th overall) and rookie fourth-round slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. (118th overall) combined to allow 2-of-5 passes for 12 yards on 68 combined coverage snaps (PFF).
New Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich saw his unit hold Baker Mayfield to 159 net passing yards on 33 dropbacks, Mike Evans to 51 yards on eight targets and Bucky Irving to 45 yards and a TD on 18 touches. Cade Otton was held catchless on 31 routes and three targets.
It took a Herculean effort by rookie Emeka Egbuka (4-67-2) to beat the Falcons, but he is a much tougher cover than Jalen Nailor and the 35-year-old version of Adam Thielen.
The Falcons also have a new kicker in John Parker Romo, who is almost certainly an upgrade because it can't get much worse than Younghoe Koo, who missed a game-tying 44-yard field goal at the end of regulation last week — his 10th miss on his last 28 attempts, dropping his field-goal percentage to an abysmal 64.3% over that span.
You know it's bad when Koo can't even get to 69.
Parker Romo has made 11-of-12 (91.7%) career field-goal attempts and is familiar with kicking in U.S. Bank Stadium after spending time on the Vikings' roster last season.
Falcons vs Vikings Prediction, Betting Analysis
According to our ActionLabs data, Week 2 underdogs +6 or less coming off an ATS loss in Week 1 are 66-40-3 (62.3%) ATS since 2005 for a 20.8% ROI.
Week 2 'dogs +6 or less coming off a straight-up loss have been even better, posting a 73-42-3 (63.5%) ATS mark and a 23.5% ROI over the past two decades.
J.J. McCarthy was impressive late in last week's comeback win against the Bears, but he's even greener than Penix and has only one quarter of good football to his name. Though McCarthy gets to play at home this week, this is now his second straight primetime game to open his career, and he's making his first career start on short rest.
Home favorites in primetime have struggled on short rest.
Per our ActionLabs data, backing the road 'dog in this spot has resulted in a 49-24-3 (67.1%) ATS record since 2003 with a 29.5% ROI.
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Spread
My best bet for Sunday Night Football is the Falcons to cover the spread at +3.5.
Moneyline
While I'm on the Falcons to cover, I will not be on their moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play for the game total.
