Atlanta Legends-San Diego Fleet AAF Betting Guide: How to Bet Teams That Haven’t Scored TDs
Courtesy of @AafLegends/Twitter. Pictured:
Betting Odds: Atlanta Legends at San Diego Fleet
- Spread: San Diego -9.5
- Over/Under: 43
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The spread has held firm at 9.5 in favor of the Fleet, but the over/under has dropped by two full points since opening at 45. This isn’t particularly surprising considering this matchup boasts two teams that haven’t scored a touchdown yet this season.
Week 1 Takeaways
Atlanta’s 40-6 Loss to Orlando
- Matt Simms completed just 15-of-28 passes (54%) for 126 yards (4.5 Y/A) and threw a pair of interceptions while former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray barely played better in relief.
- Tarean Folston pretty much controlled the backfield with team-high marks in snaps (36), carries (12) and targets (4), but Folston totaled just 45 scoreless-yards and showed the type of burst we should probably expect from a running back who ran a 4.81-second 40-yard dash back in the day.
- Head coach Brad Childress and offensive coordinator Mike Vick have both left the team within the last five weeks. Sheesh.
San Diego’s 15-6 Loss to San Antonio
- The Mike Bercovici era is over, as the Fleet will move forward with Philip Nelson under center. Mike Martz’s offense showed an alarmingly passive approach to pass protection that resulted in a week-high nine quarterback hits allowed.
- Ja’Quan Gardner is tentatively considered the man in the San Diego backfield, although it’s unclear exactly how big of a role that will be. The Fleet’s 69% pass play rate was both nice and the highest mark of any offense in Week 1.
- Francis Owusu (seven targets), Brian Brown (seven) and tight end Gavin Escobar (six) worked as San Diego’s top-three options in the pass game. Owusu (6-foot-2 and 221-pounds, 87th-percentile SPARQ-x score) boasts the most physical talent of the group.
Key matchup: San Diego’s offensive line vs. Atlanta’s defensive line
The Fleet were one of just four offenses with a PFF team run grade above 70 on offense in Week 1, while Atlanta found itself among the league’s bottom-four defenses, allowing a brutal 5.48 yards per rush.
San Diego’s aforementioned lack of affinity with running the ball could prevent the Fleet from taking advantage of this potential mismatch on the line of scrimmage. Still, it’s tough to expect too much from a passing game that’s down to their No. 3 quarterback with Josh Johnson taking his chances in the NFL and Bercovici benched indefinitely.
Which team is healthier? Push
I’m yet to find an injury report for either team this week. Stay tuned!
DFS edge: Tarean Folston
I know I just said some not-nice things about Folston’s speed, but we are talking about two offenses that haven’t found the end zone yet here.
Folston at $5,600 is akin to taking a chance with Lamar Miller at a similar mid-level price: It doesn’t feel great, but we’re pretty much getting the cheapest featured back possible.
Just because this is the AAF and not the NFL doesn’t change the fact that volume is king in fantasy football.
RBs with 10+ touches in Week 1 AAF:
Trent Richardson (24 touches – Birmingham)
Jhurell Pressley (19 – ARZ)
Joel Bouagnon (16 – SL)
Tarean Folston (15 – ATL)
Kenneth Farrow (14 – SA)
Zac Stacy (12 – MEM)
Akeem Hunt (10 – ORL)
Ja'Quan Gardner (10 – SD)
David Cobb (10 – SA)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 11, 2019
Another strategy: Try to avoid the Memphis, Atlanta and San Diego offenses until we see any semblance of a competent pass or run offense.
Bets to watch: Atlanta +9.5; Under 43
San Diego carried higher preseason expectations than Atlanta or Memphis and has seemingly earned the benefit of the doubt over both squads among the league’s three-worst teams.
In reality, the Fleet’s performance in Week 1 wasn’t that of a team that should be favored by 9.5 points under any circumstances.
I also like the under in a matchup between what could be two of the league’s worst offenses.