Bears vs. Eagles Odds & Picks: Trust Philly to Cover?

Bears at Eagles Odds & Picks

• Odds: Eagles -4.5
• Over/Under: 41.5
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Bears running back David Montgomery had the best game of his young career last weekend against the Chargers, but can he repeat that against a strong Eagles run defense?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and our staff picks.

Bears-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

Once again, the Bears have just one player on their injury report, and he isn't a starter. Congrats to them.

DeSean Jackson has gotten in limited practices, so it's possible he's able to his return to the field on Sunday. After an early exit in Week 8 and a missed practice on Wednesday, Miles Sanders (shoulder) was a full go on Thursday. Philly continues to beat up on the defensive side of the ball with LB Nigel Bradham (ankle) and DT Tim Jernigan (foot) still being held out of practice. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Eagles Run Defense vs. Bears Run Game

Even after Montgomery's breakout 27-carry, 135-yard day on the ground last week, the Bears are still ranked fourth-worst in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards (3.62) and third-worst in raw running back yards per carry (3.36).

The Eagles have had a disappointing season, but their run defense isn't a problem: Philly is ranked third in adjusted line yards allowed (3.32) and second in raw running back yards per carry allowed (3.41). That represents a drastic step up in class from the Chargers' unit that Montgomery ran all over, which ranks 18th in adjusted line yards (4.30) and 23rd in running back yards per carry allowed (4.49).

Overall, the Eagles are ranked sixth in rushing DVOA but 18th in passing DVOA.

Even though Matt Nagy has appeared increasingly petrified of trusting quarterback Mitch False-bisky, the Bears head coach would be wise to let his maligned signal-caller sling it all over the field in this contest. But hey, if the Bears can't run, perhaps they won't put themselves in a position that Nagy undoubtedly fears most of all at this point: Field-goal range. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Eagles -4
• Projected Total: 43.5

Expert Picks

Mike Randle: Eagles -5

After Montgomery's overall RB7 breakout performance against the Chargers, the Bears would hope to keep his momentum going this week at Philadelphia. However, the Eagles' stout run defense provides much more resistance than the Chargers did at Soldier Field.

Last week's 31-13 destruction of Buffalo on the road provides hope that Philadelphia has started its annual late push toward the playoffs. Since losing defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, Chicago has allowed 4.26 yards per carry six total rushing touchdowns over the past three games. Look for a "revenge game" from motivated former Bears running back Jordan Howard, whom the Eagles may give plenty of carries.

Trubisky has struggled all season, and he’s been especially bad under pressure. He ranks 30th among all signal-callers with just a 26% completion percentage when under duress.

The Bears need their running game to ease the burden off their below-average passing game. Trubisky ranks 29th in passing yards and 30th with only five passing touchdowns this season. This line has climbed from three to five points, but it still isn’t high enough. I would bet Philadelphia up to -6. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]