Bills vs. Giants Betting Odds & Picks: Will Buffalo Get Back-to-Back Wins?
Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen.
Bills at Giants Betting Odds
- Odds: Bills -1.5
- Total: 44
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet all Week 2 NFL spreads at reduced juice (-105).
Second-year quarterback Josh Allen engineered quite the comeback on the road in Week 1 against the Jets after falling behind 16-0.
Allen and the Bills get the opportunity to make it 2-0 at MetLife Stadium against the Giants and bettors are essentially split on whether they can do it with 48% of spread tickets backing Buffalo as of Thursday.
Our experts break this matchup down from every angle, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and our staff’s favorite picks.
Bills-Giants Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bills
The main injuries for the Bills consist of starting cornerback Taron Johnson who has yet to practice and Cole Beasley was absent on Thursday after coming down with an illness. We’ll have more clarity on Beasley based on what he can do on Friday.
The main injury story for this matchup is on the Giants as three of their receivers in Sterling Shepard (concussion), Darius Slayton (hamstring) and new injury report addition, Cody Latimer (calf), have shaky statuses heading into Week 2. Shepard has yet to get in a practice this week, which doesn’t bode well for his outlook.
Given that the Giants could potentially have an incredibly thin receiving group on Sunday, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley could be in for some massive target shares. The Bills have their fair share of injuries, but they’re healthier than the Giants. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Bills -1.5
- Projected Total: 41.5
The Giants predictably flopped against Dallas, so their stock took only a minor hit. The Bills, however, are the team we need to get right here.
Buffalo managed to pull off the 1-point road win despite a -3 turnover margin. That’s almost unheard of, and we could underrate the Bills heading into this week as a result.
Allen looked a bit off in the first half but really started to pick things up in the second. Not to mention that the Bills started to use Devin Singletary out of the backfield more, likely realizing he’s their best running back.
Betting behavior is a bit split here, and I would say I’m being fairly conservative making the Bills only 1.5-point favorites, which happens to align with the market. It’s a “gamble,” but I would say the bet here would be to take the Bills and bank on Allen limiting the turnovers. If he can do that — which I think he can — they could win by three or more with ease.
Under 41 hit with ease in Bills-Jets last week. I’m showing value on the Bills’ under again this week against the Giants at 43.5. It looks like there’s enough pressure from the market to push this up to 44 or even 44.5.
Waiting to lock in another key number for a total at 44 would be smart, and I think it’ll get there. — Sean Koerner
Bills WRs vs. Entire Giants Secondary (Except Janoris Jenkins)
It’s not often you’ll see the Bills’ passing game on the right side of a biggest mismatch, but quick! Name someone in New York’s secondary besides Jackrabbit. I bet you can’t. (OK, maybe Jabrill Peppers. Maybe.) Now, name someone in New York’s secondary other than Jenkins who who forced even one incompletion last week.
This time, I know you can’t because none of them did. At all. On 18 targets. While Jenkins held his own, allowing 2-19-0 on five targets, the rest of the Giants safeties and corners got mashed for a combined 18-of-18 for 269 yards and four touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus.
A whopping 14 of the 18 completions went for first downs. Antonio Hamilton, a 2016 undrafted free agent and former Raider (you know your secondary is bad when it’s comprised of no-name former undrafted Raiders) was picked on the most, surrendering seven catches for 77 yards. Not that draft pedigree made any difference: 2019 first-rounder DeAndre Baker gave up a 4-132-1 line on four targets.
Bills offseason acquisition John Brown got loose for a 7-123-1 line in his first game with the team, and the Giants can’t necessarily count on Jenkins shutting him down after Jenkins tied for the second-most touchdowns (seven) and sixth-most yards in coverage (788) among corners last season.
Beasley caught five passes in his first game with the Bills and had his second-biggest game of 2018 (6-94-1) against the Giants in Week 17.
No. 3 option Zay Jones (five touchdowns in his past six games dating back to 2018) and No. 4 Robert Foster (63.9 yards, three touchdowns in last eight) and should be able to get theirs against this secondary.
The Giants allowed a combined 6-54-2 line to Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin, so we could even see Buffalo’s pair of rookie tight ends Tommy Sweeney (2-35-0 last week) and second-rounder Dawson Knox get in on the action.
The thing about mismatches in the secondary, though, is that your quarterback has to be accurate enough to exploit them. The good news? Even the broad side of the barn they said Allen couldn’t hit can get open against the Giants. — Chris Raybon
Mike Randle: Bills -1.5
While the Bears enjoyed a stellar 2018 defensive season, the Bills weren’t too far behind. Buffalo ranked second in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and held the Jets to 175 passing yards in Week 1.
The Bills upgraded their run defense in the draft, selecting defensive tackle Ed Oliver with the ninth-overall pick. Their front line totaled four sacks against the Jets, an encouraging sign for a defense that ranked 26th as a unit last season.
The Giants’ defense was gashed by the Cowboys, allowing nearly 500 yards of total offense. Big Blue struggled to contain Dallas’ vertical passing game, allowing receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to combine for 13 receptions and 264 receiving yards.
While the Bills don’t possess the same caliber of offensive weapons, their receiving corps is versatile and deep. Allen can take deep shots with field-stretchers Brown and Jones, with Beasley giving the inaccurate Allen a reliable short-to-intermediate slot target.
The Giants will certainly get Barkley more involved after only 15 touches against Dallas, but quarterback Eli Manning will need to likely need to perform under pressure. Per PlayerProfiler, Manning’s 30% completion percentage when under pressure ranked 21st among all NFL quarterbacks.
Koerner expects Allen to limit his turnovers while the Bills defense causes problems for the limited Giants offense. With the line dropping to Bills -1.5, look for Buffalo to notch its second consecutive win at the Meadowlands.