Bills vs. Lions Betting Guide: How to Play This Over/Under in Detroit
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Matt Milano (left) defensive end Trent Murphy (center) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (right).
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Bills -2
- Over/Under: 42
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
The Bills face the Lions in one of two matchups scheduled for Friday night. Let’s start with a look at key storylines and actionable betting takeaways for both teams.
The Bills might just have the single-most underrated defense in the entire league.
- The Bills ranked second in both overall and pass DVOA last season behind only the Bears. They were a top-five unit in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (No. 4), quarterbacks (No. 1) and tight ends (No. 1).
- They replaced longtime defensive tackle Kyle Williams with stud No. 9 overall pick Ed Oliver, who was reportedly one of the most-impressive performers at Bills training camp.
- Buffalo added former Texans starting cornerback/2015 first-round pick Kevin Johnson to an already-solid secondary.
Overall, the Bills allowed the third-fewest yards per play in the league. They boast plenty of speed and talent at all three levels of the defense, with the shining star being No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White.
Expected improvement on offense from the team’s offseason moves gives the Bills some dark horse potential to claim the No. 2 spot in the AFC East and perhaps stay in the Wild Card race in 2019.
The Lions are expected to embrace the running game more in 2019 under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. This, combined with the team’s decision to release long-time third-down back, seemed to indicate a workhorse role could be on the horizon for stud second-year back Kerryon Johnson.
Alas, the Lions pulled Johnson on third down on each of his three series in Week 2 of the preseason, twice for C.J. Anderson and once for Ty Johnson (per Jared Smola).
There’s little doubt that Kerryon deserves to be fed as many touches as he can handle…
Most yards per carry among all RBs in 2018 (min. 100 carries)
1. Aaron Jones (5.47)
2. Kerryon Johnson (5.43) 👀
3. Phillip Lindsay (5.4) pic.twitter.com/rW6qbaDYDc
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 22, 2019
… but that might not be a reality on an offense that is seemingly adamant on utilizing a committee backfield.
I don’t have a great feel on this game’s spread, but I’m inclined to bet the under in a matchup between two defenses that are expected to improve in 2019.
PICK: Under 42