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Bills vs Rams Player Prop Prediction: Fade Zack Moss in NFL Week 1 Opener

Bills vs Rams Player Prop Prediction: Fade Zack Moss in NFL Week 1 Opener article feature image
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Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Moss.

PropBetGuy will be breaking down some of his favorite NFL plays throughout the season. He will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Zack Moss Rushing + Receiving Yards

Prop Under 20.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Matchup Bills vs. Rams
Day, Time Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best Book Caesars

We’ve finally made it to Day 1 of Week 1 of the NFL season. The schedule-makers did right by us this season, with two of the league’s projected top two teams, the Bills and defending-champion Rams, squaring off tonight.

My play of the game comes in the form of fading Zack Moss. The Bills running back has been plagued by injuries throughout his first two years in the NFL, which led Buffalo to select pass-catching RB James Cook in the second round of this year’s draft.

So, where does that leave Moss? Devin Singletary, who finished last season in great form, is primed to operate as the Bills lead back, garnering the bulk of the carries. Cook was drafted in part for his receiving prowess and will likely operate in third-down and hurry-up situations.

This leaves Moss, the biggest back of the three, relegated to a short-yardage role. The Utah product averaged an inefficient 3.6 yards per carry last season, only breaking off four rushes of 10+ yards out of his 96 carries. Plus, in the games in which he was active, Moss only saw 40% of the running back targets — and that’s likely to significantly shrink with Cook now on the roster.

Perhaps most importantly, this is a tough matchup for the Bills’ running backs. The Rams not only ranked fifth in rush defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but they added Bobby Wagner, who perennially grades very highly against the run.

It’s a low line, but one that I still think is too high for a guy who only should see a few inefficient touches. I have Moss projected at 12 combined yards tonight.

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