Bills vs. Titans Picks & Betting Odds: Tennessee Moneyline Offering Value?

Bills vs. Titans Picks & Betting Odds: Tennessee Moneyline Offering Value? article feature image
Credit:

Jason Getz-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Marcus Mariota.

  • The betting odds for Bills-Titans opened with a spread of Titans -3, and that's where it remains. The over/under has ticked up a touch, moving rom 38.5 to 39.5.
  • Do our experts see value in betting Tennessee as home favorites? Check out their picks and analysis below.

Bills at Titans Betting Picks & Odds

  • Bills Spread: +3
  • Titans Spread: -3
  • Bills Moneyline: +155
  • Titans Moneyline: -186
  • Total: 39
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Sunday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


With every team in the AFC South sitting at .500, the Titans are hoping to exploit a potentially hobbled Bills team in Nashville on Sunday.

As of Thursday evening, the Titans are getting just over 50% of spread betting tickets, while the under is getting more than 60% of tickets.

Our experts analyze the most important angles of Sunday’s matchup, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Bills-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

Cameron Wake (hamstring) has yet to practice this week, which wouldn’t be ideal for their pass rush since he’s tied for a team-high in pressures and sacks. He’s the only player on their injury report who has failed to practice these last two days.

Josh Allen remains in the concussion protocol, but he’s been able to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday and Thursday. It’s looking like his status could go either way at the moment.

Aside from Allen, the Bills could be missing two other offensive pieces in Tyler Kroft (foot) and offensive lineman Ty Nskehe (groin), who’ve both been sitting out of practice. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Bills Pass Defense vs. Titans Pass Offense

Forget whether it’s Matt Barkley or Allen starting — Tennessee figures to have even bigger pass-game issues of their own.

The return of Taylor Lewan from suspension will help, but this is a pass offense currently ranked 31st in early-down success rate (38.7%) going up against a pass defense ranked third in the same metric (41.4%).

Marcus Mariota is a mediocre quarterback at best, who relies on schemed plays to have success. It will be tough for Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to out-scheme a Sean McDermott pass defense that can not only stop teams early in the down, but get off the field, too.

The Bills rank sixth in third/fourth down conversion rate (28.1%), while the Titans rank 29th at converting third/fourth downs through the air on offense (28.6%). The Bills beat the Titans, 13-12, last season in Week 5, and this contest sets up as another defensive struggle. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Titans -4.5
  • Projected Total: 37

This game is currently off the board, but the openers were Titans -3  and 38.5, which would assume Allen as playing.

My projected odds above are for if Allen is ruled out and the Bills are forced to go with Barkley. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Titans ML

In a battle of two defenses I have ranked in the top 10, I’m siding with the home team for two primary reasons:

  1. Turnovers
  2. Field position

Field position will be critical in this game and the Titans have an enormous edge in this department because of their punting advantage. The Bills allowed a Patriots touchdown on a blocked punt last week, have been brutally bad in this area.

Bills punter Corey Bojorquez ranks last in the NFL with a putrid 31.7 net average. Meanwhile, the Titans will counter with one of the more reliable punters in the NFL, Brett Kern.

Marcus-Mariota-Tennessee-Titans-2018
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota.

Mariota gets a lot of hate, but he’s actually been pretty good this year.  He’s the only quarterback with four starts and zero turnovers this season, and he has the sixth-best QB rating in the NFL.

For his career, Mariota has a 2.4% interception rate, much better than Allen (4.0%) or Barkley (6.2%), should he suit up. If Allen can’t go, the Bills will also lose his mobility, which has been a big part of their offense.

The Titans haven’t been great in protecting Mariota, but they will Lewan back from suspension this week, which should help in pass protection. Buffalo’s superb safeties don’t give up much deep, but I think Mariota can put together a few drives with his feet and in the short passing game.

In a game with such a low total, every point becomes much more valuable. So, I would not recommend laying more than 3.5 here and actually played the Titans in a moneyline parlay with the Chiefs myself.

The Bills could also be in for a potential letdown here after such an emotional, close loss against the Patriots, which would’ve given them sole possession of first place in the AFC East. That’s not the reason I’m playing this game, but it’s a factor that can only help the Tennessee side.

Ultimately, in a battle of two closely matched teams, I think this comes down to home field, turnovers and field position — all of which I have in favor of Tennessee.

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