Breece Hall Player Prop for Jets vs Steelers: Expert Is Betting Rookie’s Rushing Attempts Total Thursday Night Football Pick
Getty Images: Breece Hall.
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Breece Hall Rushing Attempts
|Prop||Breece Hall Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)|
|Matchup||Jets vs. Steelers|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
The future is bright for Breece Hall and the New York Jets. Although the 2022 draft pick did not cash his rushing attempts prop over in his first three games, I expect this to change with many positive factors aligning in this matchup.
The rookie's snap share is trending in the right direction. He is currently in a split backfield with second-year back Michael Carter but is showing underlying signs of emergence. Week 3 was a great sign of this, with Hall finally out-snapping Carter, 42-36 snaps. According to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus, the Iowa State product also played in 80% of third-down and short-yardage situations.
A change in the quarterback scene could also be a catalyst for the breakout. Joe Flacco led the Jets with a league-high 74.32% of passing plays and 45.0 pass attempts per game. For perspective, the league-average consists of teams completing 61.96% passing plays and 31.5 team pass attempts.
With QB Zach Wilson back, especially in his first game of the season, I expect severe regression and the pace to be a lot slower with Gang Green leaning more towards their run game.
The Jets are only 3.5-point underdogs, the lowest spread they've faced this season. Competing in a close game should be enough for the Jets not to abandon the ground game.
We should also expect to see more possession time since New York is no longer playing against two of the top five teams — the Browns (first) and the Bengals (fourth) — in team average time of possession. This week's competition is against the Steelers, who rank 32nd in this category and cannot sustain drives with Mitch Trubisky at the helm.
Steelers are also averaging 29.00 running back rush attempts thru Week 3. Committee backs in similar roles, including Rhamondre Stevenson (9) and Kareem Hunt (12), have achieved the 9+ rush attempts number.
The Breece Hall breakout is coming. I have him projected for 10+ rushing opportunities, which make me love this prop on Sunday.