Broncos vs. Packers Odds, Picks & More
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
Broncos at Packers Betting Odds
- Odds: Packers -7
- Total: 43
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds above as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Sean Koerner compares his projected spread and total to the market to identify any potential value, while our staff reveals how they’re betting this game.
Sean Koerner’s Projected Broncos-Packers Odds
- Projected Spread: Packers -7
- Projected Total: 43.5
The Packers look like a top-five NFC team thanks to their defense.
Their offense, however, has been fairly average through two games. A lot of that could be due to the fact they’ve gotten out to early leads. Last week they scored a touchdown on each of their first three drives to go up 21-0 against the Vikings, then switched to a much more conservative game plan, allowing Minnesota to score 16 unanswered points.
The Packers could win 10 or more games but suffer from back door covers, in which case a line like -7.5 sticks out as a potential trap. But it appears sharps were comfortable enough to bet the Packers off the key number of 7 and up to 7.5.
I’m going to pass on this line, but if the Packers start 3-0, books could add an extra point or two to their spread against the Eagles in Week 4. — Sean Koerner
Matthew Freedman: Packers -7.5
The Packers offense under new head coach Matt LaFleur has looked incredibly unimpressive, averaging just 15.5 points in Weeks 1-2, but they opened the season against divisional rivals in the Bears and Vikings, both of whom have tough defenses (12.0 and 16.5 points allowed per game).
Given the strength and familiarity of their recent opponents and allowing for a scheme adjustment grace period, we can probably excuse some of the struggles the Packers have had on offense.
And it helps that they’ve looked good on defense, where they’ve made significant investments since bringing in coordinator Pettine last year. The defense ranks No. 3 with a 75.7 PFF grade, thanks primarily to the team’s improved pass rush (No. 3 with 16 quarterback hits) and pass defense (No. 3 with 4.5 adjusted yards per attempt allowed).
As for the Broncos, I’m underwhelmed. Joe Flacco has a high 69.1% completion rate, but his 6.4-yard average depth of target is one of the league’s lowest marks: He’s refusing to attack downfield, and the Broncos offense is stagnant as a result. Honestly, they’re lucky to be averaging 15 points per game.
On defense, the Broncos are No. 26 in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA with a 42.0% mark. Even with cornerback Chris Harris Jr., the defense has been slow to take to new head coach Vic Fangio’s scheme. It probably doesn’t help Harris that after years as an All-Pro slot man, he’s been moved to the outside.
The Broncos’ defensive strength is their pass rush: They can get to the quarterback with edge defenders Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. But the Packers have a good offensive line bookended by All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and nine-year veteran right tackle Bryan Bulaga. The Packers might be able to neutralize Denver’s pass rush.
Finally, with Aaron Rodgers as the starter, the Packers over the past 12 years have been one of the surest bets in the NFL to cover at home, where they are 49-27-3 against the spread. On average, at home they have exceeded the spread by 3.7 points per game and offered backers an A-graded 25.4% return on investment (per Bet Labs).
Rodgers has averaged just 206 yards passing over the past two weeks. I expect him to progress toward his 2008-18 average of 269.7 as a starter, and Rodgers’ improved play should make the difference.
I’d bet this line to -8.