Panthers vs Broncos Odds, Pick: How We’re Fading Sam Darnold
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold.
- The Broncos are slight road favorites today against the Panthers.
- A thriving Denver defense gets to face Sam Darnold in his first start of 2022.
- Dylan Wilkerson breaks down the matchup and makes his betting picks below.
Panthers vs Broncos Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 36.5 -108o / -112u | -102 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 36.5 -108o / -112u | -116 |
Where do I even start with this matchup?
Never have I seen two teams play such great defense and horrible offense. The story of these two teams is practically the same. The Panthers' quarterback position has been a revolving door, and the Broncos dished out big money for a quarterback whose best production comes in the form of Subway commercials.
While the Panthers have dealt with drama in the quarterback room, they are only two wins short of matching the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina's limited success can be credited to a solid defensive unit, which is hindered by offensive struggles.
The Broncos' story is more of the same, minus the whole, “competition for the starting quarterback position” drama. Their defense has kept them in every game this season, but their offense can't garner the momentum to capitalize on frequent defensive stops. If Denver could have scored the league average of 22 points per game, it would be 8-1-1 instead of 3-7.
My initial lean on this game is on the under, but sportsbooks anticipated a lot of people would think that way, which is why we have a season-low point total of 36.5.
Can we find value elsewhere? Let’s take a look.
Panthers vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Panthers and Broncos match up statistically:
Panthers vs. Broncos DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 28 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 25 | 21 | |
| Rush DVOA | 28 | 21 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 30 | 5 | |
| Pass DVOA | 32 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 16 | 18 | |
For Carolina, it's important to emphasize that they're in an experimental phase on offense.
At the trade deadline, the Panthers moved star running back Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco in exchange for draft picks. Robbie Anderson was also traded to the ArizonaCardinals. Carolina has trotted P.J. Walker, Baker Mayfield, Jacob Eason and now Sam Darnold at quarterback.
This lack of consistency has caused issues in the passing game for the past few weeks. In their past three games, the Panthers haven't failed to throw for more than 200 passing yards.
Broncos -1.5 | Panthers +1.5
The Broncos have their own woes, don’t get me wrong. However, their defense is one of the best in the NFL. Denver is allowing a league best 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Coupled with their 6.6 yard average depth of target, this defense is one many offenses don’t want to face.
If opposing offenses dare throw the ball down the field, they rarely find success. The Broncos are only allowing an average of 100 yards after catch per game.
While the Broncos defense is strong overall, it's not elite against the run. Denver allows the eighth-most yards per rush attempt and 115 rushing yards per game. The Panthers could plan to utilize D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard in an attempt to expose this possible weakness. That would allow Darnold to ease into the game and limit his pass attempts.
Betting Picks
The Panthers are trying to set themselves up for success in the future. This is not necessarily a bad thing and while it may be painful for Carolina fans, it could be worth it down the road.
However, throwing Darnold out on the field against one of the best pass defenses in the league seems like cruel and unusual punishment. I am not sure what Darnold did to deserve this, but I will be betting on him to have a slow day.
Use our Action Labs Player Props tool to make sure you get the best number on Darnold's passing yards.
Pick: Sam Darnold Under 182.5 passing yards | Bet to 165.5
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