Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup? article feature image

Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13)

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Browns and 49ers players scoring enough points to win your Week 5 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Browns-49ers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Odell Beckham Jr.? He has an 16.60% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Browns: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry
  • 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns

Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers

Matt Breida, RB, 49ers

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers

George Kittle, TE, 49ers

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