Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13)
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Browns and 49ers players scoring enough points to win your Week 5 fantasy football matchups.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Browns-49ers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Odell Beckham Jr.? He has an 16.60% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Browns: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry
- 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)