Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?
Credit:
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13)
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Browns and 49ers players scoring enough points to win your Week 5 fantasy football matchups.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Browns-49ers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Odell Beckham Jr.? He has an 16.60% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Browns: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry
- 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns
Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers
Matt Breida, RB, 49ers
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
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