Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Odds & Picks: Seattle Favored By Too Much?

Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Odds & Picks: Seattle Favored By Too Much? article feature image

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett

  • The Seattle Seahawks host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as near touchdown favorites on Sunday.
  • Our staff breaks down the betting odds, a key matchup and their picks, including how to bet the spread.

Buccaneers at Seahawks Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Seahawks -6
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Buccaneers hit the road as underdogs to face the Seahawks where they have been vulnerable this season. Betting tickets are currently split on the 6-point spread, but more than 55% are backing the over in this matchup.

So how should you bet this game? Our experts preview this matchup, including the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Buccaneers-Seahawks Injury Report

The Bucs’ injury report looks good with the exception of O.J. Howard (hamstring), who is trending toward missing this game with another pair of missed practices to begin the week.

Cam Brate (ribs) was upgraded to a limited practice on Thursday after sitting out Wednesday, suggesting he should be ready to go against the Seahawks this week.

The Seahawks had a lengthy injury report to begin the week, but the majority of those players have been upgraded to full practice on Thursday. The two players who look most likely to be inactive for them are safety Quandre Diggs (hamstring) and defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson (oblique) considering they haven’t logged a practice yet. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Ndamukong Suh/Vita Vea vs. Joey Hunt

Normally the honors here would go to Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and Co. against Tampa Bay’s 26th-ranked unit in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, but in order for the Seahawks to fully exploit that matchup, Hunt — their backup center — needs to hold up after starter Justin Britt was lost for the season to a knee injury last week.

Britt was by no means having a great season — his Pro Football Focus grade of 60.3 is ranked just 20th-best among centers — but Hunt represents a steep drop-off from Britt with a dismal grade of 45.3 over 65 snaps.

A 299-pound sixth-round pick out of TCU in 2016, Hunt is not only bested in girth by the 347-pound Suh and 300-pound Vea, but also skill. Suh is a five-time Pro Bowler and three-time First Team All-Pro, while Vea enters Week 9 boasting a top-20 PFF grade among interior lineman (79.2).

Seattle overcame Britt’s injury with three second-quarter touchdowns upon Hunt’s insertion last week but stalled to the tune of just three second-half points, ultimately failing to cover the 7.5-point spread in a 27-20 win.

The matchup disadvantage the Seahawks face with Hunt at center coupled with the stoutness of Tampa Bay’s top-ranked run defense in DVOA could pose issues if they employ their normal run-heavy approach with a lead, potentially leaving them vulnerable to another backdoor cover. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -7
  • Projected Total: 53

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Buccaneers +6

This is a great spot to buy low on a Bucs team that’s much better than their record indicates. Tampa could easily be 4-3 and the entire narrative surrounding this team would be different. Seattle is sitting at 6-2 with a +12 point differential while Tampa is at 2-5 with a -16.

Conversely, the Seahawks have had a number of games break their way. Five of their wins have come by one possession and four came by a total of eight points.

Realistically, Seattle should also be sitting closer to 4-3. And if this was a battle of two 4-3 teams, I don’t think we’d see -6 here. So, not only is it a bargain buy, but also a sell on Seattle, which I’ve done each of the past three weeks as well.

From a yards-per-play perspective, Tampa has allowed 5.6 while Seattle has given up 6.4 (tied with Arizona for third-worst in the NFL). Only the two winless teams, Miami and Cincy, have allowed more on a per-play basis. Seattle has been stronger on the other side of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play (11th), but the Bucs aren’t too far behind at 5.8 (17th).

From a matchup perspective, this is a good one for Tampa. Seattle wants to run it as much as any team in the NFL (one of only five that average more than 30 rush attempts per game along with the 49ers, Ravens, Vikings and Colts).

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seahawks RB Chris Carson celebrates with teammates

The Bucs defense excels at stopping the run, ranking No. 1 overall in yards per rush at 3.0 with the top rush defense DVOA. The Todd Bowles scheme and some key acquisitions have given Tampa a dominant front seven that should stuff Seattle’s run game.

Wilson should get his through the air with some big plays against a very suspect Bucs pass defense, which is the clear weak area of this team.

However, I also think Jameis Winston and Tampa’s dynamic duo on the outside of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can keep up against a Seattle defense that doesn’t generate much pressure (27th in adjusted sack rate) and is decimated with injuries in the secondary.

Winston should be able to exploit Seattle deep on a few occasions with his explosive receivers. And it’s also possible that corner Tre Flowers doesn’t play.

I’m taking the points with an undervalued Bucs team that is more than capable on the road with wins over the Rams and Panthers. Plus, Bruce Arians is no stranger to winning in Seattle, having won four of five meetings outright in Seattle against — each as an underdog and three of the four wins as a dog of more than a touchdown.

Coaches vs. Wilson in Seattle

  • Bruce Arians: 4-1 against the spread (80%) | 4-1 straight up
  • All other coaches: 21-31-3 ATS (40.4%) | 10-45 SU

Moneyline underdogs vs. Wilson in Seattle

  • Arians: 4-1 +$1,056
  • Others: 8-40 -$1,985 (losing by over 10 points per game)

I’d take anything +4 or better here. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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