Buccaneers vs. Titans Odds & Picks: Trust Ryan Tannehill As Home Favorite?

Buccaneers at Titans Odds & Picks

• Odds: Titans -2.5
• Over/Under: 45.5
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Tennessee Titans' decision to start Ryan Tannehill paid off in a narrow 23-20 win over the Chargers last week. Now Tannehill will get the nod again as a small home favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But where are the betting edges in this matchup?

Our experts break it down from every angle, featuring Sean Koerner's projected odds.

Buccaneers-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Buccaneers

The Bucs' main injury to watch is O.J. Howard (hamstring), who was downgraded to no practice on Thursday after getting in a limited session on Wednesday. His potential absence could make Cameron Brate an intriguing streaming option or cheap DFS salary-saver on DraftKings for $2,700.

Delanie Walker continues to miss practice with an ankle injury that knocked him out of last week's game. And the Titans could be down their top cornerback in Adoree’ Jackson as he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a foot injury. His potential absence is good news for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Buccaneers Rush Defense vs. Titans Rush Defense

While quarterback play certainly hasn't been consistent for Tampa Bay, the defense has been.

New coordinator Todd Bowles transitioned the Bucs to a 3-4 defense, and it's produced tremendous results against the run. After allowing 4.7 yards per rush last season — 21st in the NFL — the Bucs now lead the league, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry.

Advanced metrics paint the same picture. The Bucs rank inside the top two of all five of Football Outsiders' rush defense measures:

• Adjusted Line Yards: 1
• Power Success: 2
• Stuffed Rate: 2
• 2nd Level: 1
• Open Field: 1

Now the Bucs get a Titans offense averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Their offensive line also ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards.

But just as the Bucs' run defense has been consistently good (No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA), their pass defense has been consistently bad (No. 25 in DVOA). They’re especially vulnerable deep, but Tannehill and Tennessee's receivers are not necessarily the scariest aerial attack.

The Titans' run-first offense is a good matchup for this Bucs defense, which should come in fresh off a much-needed bye following three straight games away from Tampa Bay in Los Angeles, New Orleans and London. — Stuckey

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Titans -3
• Projected Total: 46

The current line of -2.5 is likely to push up to my projected number of -3.

The total is where I’m seeing some slight value at 45.5. My Pass/Run Funnel Model is giving it a rating of 0.22 on the over, which has resulted in a 57.8% in-sample predicted win rate. This makes sense as both defenses are currently in the top three in rush defense DVOA, so both teams would be wise to air it out in this matchup. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Koerner: Lean Over 45.5

The Titans are more than capable of taking advantage of this matchup with a solid receiving corps featuring Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries and Walker. The offense looked less sluggish without Marcus Mariota, so I’m willing to buy in on this over before the market catches up.

Plus anytime Jameis Winston gets into a pass-happy matchup, it favors the over.

This is a lean at 45.5 as the total could drop, so I usually wait for plays like this. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]