CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey Most Popular Player Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. 49ers
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott (left), CeeDee Lamb (right).
- CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott and Christian McCaffrey lead the way as the most popular prop picks for this Sunday night tilt between the Cowboys and 49ers.
- But are those picks valuable?
- Read further to see which specific props the public is targeting and what the fair value odds are.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Cowboys vs. 49ers Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- CeeDee Lamb to score a TD anytime (+155)
- Dak Prescott to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns (-120)
- Christian McCaffrey to score a TD anytime (-155)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
None of the retail bettors’ favorite picks for 49ers vs. Cowboys have value in the clinical sense.
But one ancillary line does — the under on Prescott’s TD prop.
While the over should be priced around +105, the best market price with FanDuel only scratches the surface at +102. At PointsBet’s price of -120, it’s definitely a stay away.
But at PointsBet’s price for the under — at a vig of -110 — it’s a worthwhile bet, according to Koerner.
The fair value price of that line is about -115. That means you’re receiving a roughly 1% betting edge.
Another way to think about it: You’re accumulating 1% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you’re guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Meanwhile, Lamb should be priced closer to +180 in the anytime TD market, according to Koerner. His best market price is with BetMGM at +175.
And McCaffrey should be priced at -125. His best market price is with DraftKings at -140.