Our 3 Favorite Chiefs vs. Broncos Prop Bets & Picks

Our 3 Favorite Chiefs vs. Broncos Prop Bets & Picks article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

  • We're eyeing three prop bets for the Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET on FOX).
  • Find our picks for Patrick Mahomes' passing touchdowns as well as Phillip Lindsay's and Damien Williams' rushing yards below.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

THE PICK: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230)

This prop is juiced up pretty substantially, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t providing value — -230 odds have an implied probably of 69.7%, but the true odds of Mahomes throwing multiple touchdowns is definitely higher. Mahomes has started 23 regular-season games, and he’s thrown at least two TDs in 18 of them (78.3%).

As my colleague Matthew Freedman points out in his excellent trends piece, the Chiefs have also been an offensive juggernaut when playing on the road. For his career, Mahomes has averaged 339.9 passing yards and 3.17 passing touchdowns per game when playing outside of Arrowhead. Those represent huge increases when compared to his home averages of 309.6 passing yards and 2.36 passing touchdowns per game.

Mahomes has actually gone under this mark in two of his past three games, so this is a nice opportunity to buy relatively low on him. I’d play the over up to -275.

Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay

THE PICK: Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Lindsay was one of the biggest surprises in football last season. He started as an undrafted rookie — he wasn’t even invited to the combine! — and finished the year as a Pro Bowler. Overall, he finished with 1,037 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns.

This year, he finds himself in a true timeshare situation with Royce Freeman. Lindsay has a slight edge in snaps — he’s played on 61% compared to Freeman’s 47% — but it’s limited Lindsay’s weekly ceiling. He’s totaled 15 or fewer carries in five of the first six weeks.

The game script could also be an issue. The spread currently sits at just three-points, but the Chiefs are capable of turning every contest into a blowout. If that happens, Lindsay could have a lower rushing floor than usual.

This line seems a bit high given the RB situation in Denver. I like the under up to -110.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

THE PICK: Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (+128)

The Chiefs’ backfield is murky, with Williams, LeSean McCoy and Darrell Williams all factoring into the equation. That said, Damien Williams has led the backfield in snaps in three of the four weeks he’s been active this season. He’s gotten at least nine carries in all three of those contests, so last week’s lone carry feels like an outlier.

His production leaves a lot to be desired — he’s averaging a comically low 2.0 yards per carry this season — but he did average 5.1 yards per carry in 2018.

I like this prop because we can win it in a variety of ways. He can get there through sheer volume if he gets back to the 9-10 carry range, or he can get there through increased efficiency. I like the over at better than even money.

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