Chiefs vs Jets Prediction | Odds, Expert Pick for Sunday Night Football

We're here to break down Chiefs vs. Jets odds and make a betting pick for NFL Sunday Night Football.

According to public betting data tracked in the Action App at the time of publication, Kansas City-New York is the second-most bet game of the week (behind Bills vs. Dolphins). The Chiefs have attracted more than 80% of the bets, but we've tracked over a dozen sharp moves on the Jets.

Let's break down the penultimate game of NFL Week 4 and make a Chiefs vs. Jets pick and prediction.

Spoiler: Sorry to the Taylor Swift hive, but it's not a Travis Kelce prop.

The best case for betting the Chiefs lies not with Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce or even Taylor Swift, but with their improved defense.

The Chiefs have allowed only three defensive touchdowns all season. Their defense is fifth in Expected Points Added per Play allowed (-0.167) and fourth in success rate allowed (39.1%).

Against the pass, they're fourth in EPA per play (-0.263) and third in success rate (39.3%). Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is last among 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.279) and 33rd in success rate (35.3%).

The Chiefs have been somewhat vulnerable on the ground, ranking 12th in success rate (35.8%) but 24th in EPA per play (0.001). Save for a few big plays from Breece Hall, the Jets' ground game has sputtered, ranking 28th in EPA per play (-0.215) and 24th in success rate (36.2%).

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The Jets have one of the most talented defenses in the league, but a lot of their performance ultimately depends on whether the offense puts them in bad positions. New York gave up 16 points to the Bills in Week 1 with the offense turning it over only once, and 15 points to the Patriots in Week 3 with the offense not turning it over at all. In Week 2, it allowed 30 points to the Cowboys when the offense had four turnovers.

The Chiefs offense struggled over the first two weeks, scoring 14 points in Week 1 and 17 in Week 2 before breaking out for 41 points against the Bears' league-worst defense.

Kelce will likely get his against a Jets defense that ranks 30th in DVOA to tight ends, but Sauce Gardner and company are capable of locking up the Chiefs' middling wide receiver corps.

The Chiefs tend to go pass heavy — their 24.5 rushing attempts per game ranks 25th — but the Jets are also capable of limiting the run game, as they rank fifth in rushing EPA per play allowed (-0.240) and seventh in rushing success rate allowed (33.7%).

It has not been profitable to back the Chiefs in this spot: Per our Action Labs data, they are just 12-26 (32%) ATS when favored by more than three points dating back to Nov. 8, 2020.

However, it has also not been profitable to back Zach Wilson, as he's 10-14 (42%) ATS in his career as a starter. Ultimately, I don't recommend laying big points on the road or backing Wilson, so I would not play a side in this game.

The market has also caught on to the potential for this to be a defensive matchup, with the total of 41.5 being the lowest in a Mahomes start since he took over in 2018 and down 8.5 points from the lookahead of 50 (which assumed Aaron Rodgers, not Wilson, would be the starter).

My projected total of 41.5 is in line with the market, but if forced to make a bet on this game, I would lean toward the under rather than playing a side.

For what it's worth, primetime unders down at least 1.5 points from open have gone 85-51 (63%) since 2015, covering by 2.3 points per game.

The under is also 14-10 (58%) in Wilson starts, including 8-3 (73%) since the start of last season.

All EPA and success rate data is courtesy of rbsdm.com.