Colts vs. Texans Betting Picks: Our 3 Favorite TNF Bets

Colts vs. Texans Betting Picks: Our 3 Favorite TNF Bets article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jacoby Brissett

  • Our experts reveal how they're betting the Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans.
  • You'll find two picks on the 3.5-point spread below as well as another pick on one of the top player prop bets of the night.

Colts at Texans Betting Odds

  • Odds: Texans -3.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX/NFL Network

Odds as of early Thursday afternoon.

More than 60% of tickets and 70% of the money bet have come in on the Houston Texans as 3.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.

But what does our staff think of Deshaun Watson and Co.’s chance of covering in this key AFC South showdown?

Two of our experts make their spread picks for Thursday Night Football, as well as one of the top player prop bets.

Chad Millman: Texans -3.5

Are you kidding me? I know the stakes in this game. I know Bill O’Brien is wasting Deshaun Watson because he coaches with the arrogance and misunderstanding of a Pee Wee football dad.

But a home team on a short week on Thursday night? At this price, I’m buying.

What’s the rule we love to preach? Public perception is everything when bookmakers post numbers. In this case, bettors just saw Jacoby Brissett and the Colts get healthy against the Jags, a game with a number that moved in Jacksonville’s direction. And, ICYMI, the Texans got blown out by the Ravens.

We got a buy-low (Texans), sell-high (Colts) scenario, people. Time to Gordon Gekko this one.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Mike Randle: Texans -3.5

The Colts have dominated the Texans recently, holding a 28-8 historical advantage and winning five of the past six meetings (including all three at NRG Stadium).

However, the Colts will likely be without the services of T.Y. Hilton, who has been a major thorn in the side of the Texans’ defense.

In 15 career games against the Texans, Hilton has averaged 5.5 catches, 101.3 receiving yards, 0.67 touchdowns and 19.6 fantasy points per game. While he’s vowed to play this Thursday night, his official status is questionable and his effectiveness is likely limited as he continues to recover from a nagging ankle injury. Brissett has been directly impacted by Hilton’s absence, finishing as the QB26 and QB17 over his last two games without the receiver.

Then there’s Marlon Mack, who has already been ruled out. The Texans still have one of the league’s best run defenses, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. While the loss of All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt has hurt, they have more than enough at home to limit the ground production of Wilkins and/or Williams.

DeAndre Hopkins-Clayton Geathers
USA Today Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins, Clayton Geathers

The Colts’ injured secondary is also cause for concern, especially against DeAndre Hopkins. Slot wide receiver Keke Coutee has against gained the trust of the coaching staff, and workhorse running back Carlos Hyde has averaged more than 100 total yards over the past three games.

In the 16 home games with Watson at quarterback, the Texans have averaged 27.6 points with a 7.44 point differential. I’m taking Houston at home as the healthier team in a true must-win game against an inconsistent division rival.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Matt LaMarca: Jonathan Williams Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

The Colts will be without Mack, which opens up plenty of opportunities for the other RBs on the roster. Williams and Nyheim Hines spilt the workload after Mack left the game in Week 11, but Williams was the preferred option for the ground game. He tallied 13 carries compared to just three for Hines, and he turned those carries into 116 yards.

The backfield will be a little more crowded this week with Jordan Wilkins returning from injury, but it seems unlikely that Williams will just disappear after dominating in relief last week. We currently have him projected for 58 rushing yards, which makes this one of the biggest smash bets of the entire NFL season.

This prop is graded very highly in our tool, so I’m looking to take advantage. I would play the over up to -180. And if you’re looking for other ways to leverage this mistake in the market, you can also take a look at the under on Jordan Wilkins’ rushing yards.

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