Cowboys vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Picks: Back Washington in NFC East Showdown?

Cowboys vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Picks: Back Washington in NFC East Showdown? article feature image
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Photo credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

Cowboys at Redskins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Cowboys -5.5
  • Total: 46.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Redskins were surprisingly frisky in Week 1 before ultimately falling to the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Cowboys ran through the Giants, easily covering the 7-point spread. Who has the edge in this divisional matchup?

Below our experts break down notable injuries, highlight our projected odds, show a Pro betting system and give their favorite betting picks.

Cowboys-Redskins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

Heading into their second game of the season, the Cowboys are healthy for their divisional matchup against Washington.

The same can’t be said for the Redskins, who are expected to be without Derrius Guice (knee) for six to eight weeks. Jordan Reed (concussion) has had some extra time to recover after he didn’t play in Week 1, and he’s now logged back-to-back limited practices. Friday will be a big day for him if he can clear the concussion protocol. The Redskins are optimistic about his status for Week 2. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -3.5
  • Projected Total: 46

Books appear to be getting flooded with Cowboys action, as they’re accounting for at least 85% of tickets and money as of writing (see live publish betting data here). But the line has only moved from -4.5 to -5, which is pretty weak. I’m thinking the sharps agree the line should be closer to -3.5 and might be waiting for it to climb to a better number like 6 before coming in on Washington.

The Redskins are, of course, going to regress offensively from Week 1, but I don’t think we can write them off completely. Give me Washington if the line gets pushed up to anything north of 6. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys’ Run Offense vs. Redskins’ Run Defense

Last year, the Redskins run defense was terrible (per Football Outsiders), ranking No. 29 in adjusted line yards per attempt (4.97), No. 28 in power run success rate (76%) and No. 26 in stuffed run rate (15.8%) and second-level yards per attempt (1.37).

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have three All-Pro linemen in left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin, and perhaps most importantly, they now seem to have an offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore who schemes intelligently and calls plays aggressively.

Although Moore will likely lean on the passing game as he did in Week 1, whenever he does shift to the run, he should have strong success attacking a traditionally weak front seven.

Ezekiel Elliott
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott

Since the Cowboys drafted running back Ezekiel Elliott in 2016, they are 5-1 straight-up against the Redskins with a point differential of 8.7, and almost all of their success has come via the running game. While quarterback Dak Prescott has averaged just 201.2 net passing yards per game (including sacks), the Cowboys have averaged a robust 139.2 yards and 2.2 touchdowns rushing on 32.8 carries per game against the Redskins.

I’m not sure why this game should be much different than the last six games between the divisional rivals. Matthew Freedman

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive. It’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 108-112-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,602 following this strategy since 2003.

The Redskins at +218 are a match for this system in Week 2 after covering against the Eagles in the opener. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Chris Raybon: Washington +5.5; Under 46.5

Both of these teams played in high-scoring affairs in Week 1, and it looks like the public thinks the Cowboys should be able to pull away after Prescott dropped four touchdowns on the Giants in a resounding 35-17 win, inflating the spread from its +4 open to +5.5 even though the line should be closer to 3.5.

I see an entirely different game script playing out in this game. The Redskins outplayed the Eagles in Week 1, finishing with better marks in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. What did them in was going away from the run game at the wrong time with a quick three-and-out on three incompletions midway through the third, as well as a myriad of penalties and two 50-yard TD bombs to DeSean Jackson.

Back in Washington, I think they will lean on Adrian Peterson and cut down on the penalties, which tends to be easier at home.

There’s also an overreaction to the Dallas passing attack: Prescott has tossed 20 TDs in 12 games since the team acquired Amari Cooper, but eight of them came in two games against the Giants.

Explosive plays and penalties are notoriously tough to predict but obviously swing games and warp perceptions, which works in favor of the Skins and the under this week.

We tend to underrate the Redskins in spots like this: Per Bet Labs, the Redskins are 31-24 against the spreads as an underdog under Jay Gruden, including 9-5 since the start of last season (6-2 as a home dog). I saw enough value on this to grab at the dead numbers of +5.5 and 46.5, but would invest more if it gets to the key numbers of +6 and 47, respectively.