Cowboys vs. Giants Odds & Picks: Back America’s Team on Monday Night Football?

Cowboys vs. Giants Odds & Picks: Back America’s Team on Monday Night Football? article feature image

Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

Cowboys at Giants Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Cowboys -6.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Dallas Cowboys are near touchdown favorites on the road against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

The public believes America’s Team can cover the spread, with 72% of tickets and 57% of money backing the Cowboys as of Sunday evening. But is that where the best betting value is?

Our experts break down this NFC East matchup, complete with a staff pick.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

The Giants ruled receiver Sterling Shepard (concussion) out even though he practiced earlier in the week. He’s the lone player on their injury report for Monday night.

Coming off the bye, the Cowboys are in good shape with just cornerback Anthony Brown (hamstring) and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) listed as questionable. Vander Esch is expected to play. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense

Dak Prescott had the best passing game of his career against the Giants with a 405-yard, four-touchdown performance in Week 1, and the New York’s defense is just as bad now as it was then.

In eight games, they’ve allowed 300-yard passing performances to Prescott, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. In other words, every competent veteran quarterback they’ve faced.

The Cowboys are coming off the bye, so they should have all their offensive starters: Tackles Tyron Smith and La’El Collins are back, and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup should be close to 100% (if not fully healthy).

nfl injury report-fantasy football injuries-week 7-2019
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Amari Cooper (19), Michael Gallup (13).

As for the Giants, they have a funnel defense that ranks No. 12 against the run but No. 28 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA). Outside the teams that have suffered in-season injuries at the position, the Giants might have the league’s worst trio of starting corners.

No. 1 corner Janoris Jenkins was a Pro-Bowl defender in 2016, but since then his skills have steadily declined, based on his Pro Football coverage grade:

  • 2016: 82.9
  • 2017: 69.6
  • 2018: 66.3
  • 2019: 61.5

The Giants opened the season by using him in one-on-one shadow coverage against opposing No. 1 receivers, but he allowed a horrendous 282 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 1-3. After that, the Giants waived the white flag and since then have used him almost exclusively at left corner, where he can rely a little more on safety help.

Right cornerback DeAndre Baker has a bottom-five PFF coverage of 38.3. The first-round rookie might be an asset one day, but right now he’s a total liability. With his 510 yards and five touchdowns allowed, he’s literally the league’s most exploited corner: No one has given up more production to opposing receivers than he has.

Slot corner Grant Haley is an undrafted second-year player who has allowed a ridiculous 86.5% catch rate this year and a league-high 353 yards in the slot. That he’s even starting speaks to the team’s utter dearth of options.

In Week 1, Cooper, Gallup and slot receiver Randall Cobb combined for 333 yards and two touchdowns on 17 receptions and 21 targets against this hapless corner trio. There’s no reason they shouldn’t have another big day.

Add in even average pass-catching contributions from running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard and tight ends Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin, and the Cowboys could have a massive day through the air. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -6.5
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Expert Pick

Freedman: Cowboys -6.5

The passing game is what matters most in the NFL. The Cowboys offense is No. 1 in pass success rate (56%, per Sharp Football Stats), while the Giants defense is No. 27 (50%).

On the other side of the ball, the Giants offense and Cowboys defense basically cancel each other out: Both are No. 22 in pass success (44%, 48%).

Given the large edge they have in the passing game (detailed above) — as well as the benefit they should get from their 15-day break — I like the Cowboys, even on the road.

I’d bet them to -7. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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