Giants vs. Eagles Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Eli Manning’s Return on MNF

Giants at Eagles Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Eagles -9.5
• Over/Under: 45
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of Sunday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Carson Wentz played one of his better games of the season in Week 13, but the Eagles dropped to 5-7 after losing to the Dolphins. The Giants ruled Daniel Jones out this week, meaning Eli Manning returns to start in primetime in this divisional matchup.

Our experts think that Wentz will try to exploit a questionable Giants secondary, but that this matchup may not be as lopsided as the line indicates.

Giants-Eagles Injury Report

The Eagles have a few noteworthy guys on their injury report in Jordan Howard (shoulder) and Nelson Agholor (knee). Howard hasn’t played the last few weeks, and his absence or presence likely wouldn’t change Miles Sanders’ role all that much at this point. Agholor didn’t practice all week and is considered a game-time decision.

Meanwhile, the Giants have already ruled out Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion).  Golden Tate should be a full go after clearing the concussion protocol and practicing in full all week. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Sunday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Eagles Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense

Quarterback Carson Wentz is coming off a triumphant 310-yard, three-touchdown Week 14 smackdown of the Dolphins, and he has another matchup to exploit this week.

The Giants have a funnel defense that ranks No. 11 against the run but No. 30 against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and they are probably worse than that ranking right now.

Week 3 was the last time that No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins was used in shadow coverage. Since Week 4, he’s played almost exclusively at left corner. He’s no longer a shutdown defender.

Opposite Jenkins, the Giants are a mess. Rookie DeAndre Baker has the lowest Pro Football Focus coverage grade of any starting corner. And now the team is mixing in an injury-impacted 2018 third-round supplemental draft pick in Sam Beal, who has just three games of NFL experience. Last week, Beal allowed a touchdown on the one target in his coverage. Both players are massive liabilities.

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In the slot, the Giants are going with undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley. He has been the starter for most of the season, but he was benched a month ago and replaced by sixth-round rookie third-string defensive back Corey Ballentine. After Ballentine (concussion) yielded a 12-188-1 receiving line on 14 targets in Week 12 and suffered a head injury in Week 13, Haley is back in the starting lineup.

Given that Haley was benched for Ballentine and has allowed an 86% catch rate this year, he’s probably not an upgrade.

Even if slot receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) misses this game, Wentz should be able to connect with wide receivers Alshon Jeffery, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward Jr. against such hapless defenders.

On top of that, the Giants are No. 23 in pass defense DVOA against running backs, and Miles Sanders is a promising pass-catching back.

And in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, Wentz has the league’s best tight end duo, and they will be facing a safety unit without starter Jabrill Peppers (back, IR).

With his matchup, Wentz could have a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance for the second week in a row. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Eagles -8.5
• Projected Total: 46.5

Daniel Jones is out, which means we get to see Eli Manning this week. This is more of a lateral move as I don’t really see either quarterback being worth more to the spread than the other right now.

However, with Evan Engram and Golden Tate likely due back, we could see the Giants field all of their skill players in the same game for the first time in what seems like years. This will add half to a full point to their rating, which makes me like the Giants getting 10 points here.

I know I said the very same “we could see all their skill players active” line last week and only one day later two of them were ruled out, so let’s at least wait to see if they’re active before pulling the trigger here.

The Giants should also be motivated with a potential “last start” narrative for Eli as a Giant.

PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 831-738-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 186-112-3 (62.4%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,481 following this strategy.

The Giants-Eagles total opened 47 and has been bet down to 45.5. Some bettors may worry that there is no more value left but we have found that even if the over/under decreases, unders matching this system have still gone 79-48-1 (62%). — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Ewing: Giants +9.5

The Giants are replacing a rookie quarterback with a two-time Super Bowl champion and the oddsmakers don't care. The G-Men are 10-point underdogs against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Casual bettors will likely shy away from Eli Manning & Co. But history tells us bad teams are often undervalued.

A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $1,868 since 2003. It is not just history that points to value on the Giants.

The Action Network simulations have the Eagles winning by 6.6 points on average and Sean Koerner’s power ratings make Philly a 8.5-point favorite.

I like the Giants at the key number of 10 but would back Eli, in potentially his last start, down to NYG +9.

John Ewing is 319-293-16 (52.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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