Sonny Banks: How I’m Betting the Texans-Titans Over/Under
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4).
- The Tennessee Titans host the Houston Texans this week in a pivotal game between two 8-5 teams seeking to win the AFC South.
- Sonny Banks explains where he's finding value in the Week 15 matchup.
For those who have followed @So_Money_Sports on Twitter, he’s now bringing his written analysis to The Action Network. You can get real-time alerts on all of his bets in our FREE app.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Titans -3
- Over/Under: 50
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The strength of the Tennessee Titans offense has been running the ball, and they have had success doing so during their winning streak. However, their opponents have not offered much in the way of resistance.
The Chiefs, Jaguars, Colts and Raiders all rank in the bottom third of the league against the run. The Titans have shown that they can take advantage of weaker run defenses and the Texans are right there in the bottom third as well.
Tannehill, with the emergence of A.J. Brown, has taken the passing game to the next level. He will have the benefit of throwing against the 27th-ranked pass defense.
He will also have time in the pocket against a Houston defensive line that does not employ a strong pass rush, with a 6.8% adjusted sack rate. I’m expecting Tennessee to move the ball fairly easily.
There was no chance that Bill O’Brien was going to have his team ready against the Broncos after the huge win over Patriots. We also saw this after their win in Kansas City, following it up with a flat start vs Colts. Statistically, Houston is a top-10 passing offense, and ranks 12th running the ball.
However, I have them trending even higher since their past four games have been against top-15 overall defenses. They are now stepping down in class vs. the 23rd-ranked passing defense, and trending lower after giving up 5.9 YPP vs Oakland’s 11th-ranked offense and 5.8 YPP vs. the Colts’ 16th–ranked offense in a deceiving win.
Both offenses in this game are perfectly aligned to take advantage of their opponent’s defensive deficiencies. The offensive advantages combined with this game being the first divisional game, rather than the familiarity that comes with the second divisional game, should result in a lot of scoring here.
I played Over 48.5, would play the over 50 and expect this to move past the 51/52.