Titans vs Texans Odds, Pick: We’re Fading Houston in Frigid Nashville

Titans vs Texans Odds, Pick: We’re Fading Houston in Frigid Nashville article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Cold Titans fans.

  • The Titans are favored by 3.5 points against the Texans on Christmas Eve.
  • The game was delayed one hour because of power outages in the Nashville area.
  • Cody Goggin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Editor's note: This game has been delayed to a 2 p.m. ET kickoff due to power outages in Nashville.

Titans vs Texans Odds

Saturday, Dec. 24
2 p.m. ET
Titans Odds
-106o / -114u
Texans Odds
-106o / -114u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This week, we're tasked with finding a Titans vs Texans pick.

Houston played both Dallas and Kansas City right to the bitter end the past two weeks, but came up just short in each. Sitting at 1-12-1, the Texans are inching closer to securing the number one overall pick in this year’s draft. With just a couple more losses, Houston will lock up the rights to the first pick and potentially secure its future franchise quarterback.

Tennessee is still battling for a spot in the playoffs. The Titans have been on a bit of a slide and have lost four straight games. The past two have been particularly detrimental for their playoff hopes, losing to the Jaguars and Chargers, both of whom could overtake them for a chance in the postseason.

Seems like it's easy to find a side and make a Titans vs Texans pick then, huh?

Well, the Titans are hanging on to the AFC South lead, but the Jaguars are breathing down their necks and with a Week 18 rematch looming, Jacksonville has a clear path to the division title.

That would leave Tennessee looking in a battle for a wild card spot, where its chances don’t look any better. The Ravens (9-5) and the Chargers and Dolphins, both 8-6, hold the three wild card spots. Los Angeles also holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after last week’s victory, so this game is extraordinarily important for Tennessee’s playoff chances.

Titans vs Texans Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Titans match up statistically:

Titans vs Texans DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA3116
Pass DVOA3128
Rush DVOA321
Overall DVOA2121
Pass DVOA1617
Rush DVOA1924

Unfortunately, the Titans will have to push for the playoffs without the help of Ryan Tannehill, who was carted off of the field with an ankle injury last week and is reportedly "very likely" be out for the season. That places Tennessee's hopes on the back of rookie Malik Willis, who has seen limited action this year.

Just as Tennessee is starting to get healthier on defense, its offense is getting banged up. In addition to Tannehill, the Titans have also lost offensive linemen Dillon Radunz and Ben Jones. Treylon Burks is expected to return this week, but without a healthy offensive line, Willis could be in for a rough day.

The start to Willis’ NFL career has gone about as expected. He’s a dynamic athlete with the ball in his hands and has a cannon for an arm, but he also tends to invite pressure and hold onto the ball too long. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, Willis has the highest average time to throw in the league at 3.50 seconds. This is just above Justin Fields, who fits a similar mold of being a gifted athlete who sometimes holds onto the ball too long.

Of the 52 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year, Willis ranks 50th with a 45.6 PFF passing grade. Willis also ranks last among quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play at -0.445. For reference, that means every time Willis has the ball, it’s worth -0.445 points to his team.

Willis has a long way to go as a passer in this league and needs time to develop, something the Titans can’t really offer if they want to win the division.

Bet Houston vs. Tennessee at FanDuel

The last time these teams played, it was brutal to watch. Willis averaged –0.67 EPA per play while Davis Mills was at -0.38. The Texans also had just a 50% offensive series conversion rate and a 25% success rate. Outside of a touchdown on their last drive of the game, every Houston offensive drive ended in either a punt, turnover or a loss of yardage before kicking a field goal.

The standout performer in that game was Derrick Henry, of course. Henry carried the rock 32 times for 219 yards and scored both of Tennessee’s touchdowns.

That has become the norm for King Henry against the Texans. He has run for at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of the past four times these teams have faced off. With Tannehill out, Tennessee will undoubtedly lean heavily on Henry again this weekend.

Houston has played better in each of the past two weeks since Davis Mills has come back off the bench and Jeff Driskel has gotten into the mix. However, this has not magically solved all of the Texans' problems.

In each of the past two games, Houston has greatly benefitted from turnovers. The Texans were also outgained substantially in each contest.

Rookie offensive lineman Kenyon Green will miss his second game of the season, along with receiver Nico Collins. Chris Moore is listed as questionable to play and there is a good chance Brandin Cooks could suit up for the first time in weeks. Dameon Pierce has also landed on Injured Reserve, leaving Houston without a true lead back.

Betting Picks

In a week where much of the league is being ravished by inclement weather, this game will avoid most of it. At the time of this writing, the forecast calls for a chilly 18 degrees, with wind chills in the single digits. However, the extreme winds plaguing much of the country likely won't be a factor. Winds are expected to be around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

The Titans were able to completely dominate the last time these teams played and I think their defense will have a repeat performance in these conditions. Malik Willis adds uncertainty to this picture as he could end up giving some points to Houston via turnovers, but I think Houston will fail to hit 17 points this weekend.

Pick: Texans Under 16.5 Points (-115) | Bet to Under 16 Points (-120)

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