Jaguars vs Steelers Odds, Pick, Prediction | Week 8

Here's everything you need to know about the latest Jaguars vs Steelers odds with an expert pick and prediction for this Week 8 clash.

The Jaguars are two-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 41 total points scored. The Jaguars are -135 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Steelers are +115 underdogs.

Let's break down the matchup and get to our Jaguars vs. Steelers pick, which is betting on Pittsburgh's luck running out.

The Jaguars are a fascinating team because their raw numbers tell a different story than who they actually are. On offense, Jacksonville is ninth in points per game and 14th in yards per game. On defense, the 'Jags are 16th in points per game and 25th in yards per game.

The offense gets the love and attention because of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence and all the other resources spent to build it.  However, their efficiency numbers drop them from arguably top-10 to below average. Jacksonville is 18th in points per drive and 23rd in yards per drive. 

With the offenses below average efficiency, we can see that it has been the defense driving Jacksonville’s success. The Jaguars are eighth in points allowed per drive and 14th in yards allowed per drive. Beyond that, Jacksonville has provided huge support to their offense via turnovers. The 'Jags are first in turnovers forced with 16.

The Jaguars find themselves in the dream position. A team that plays through its defense but has the offensive potential to outscore anyone. 

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Turning to the Steelers, based on their body of work they are fortunate to be 4-2.  Pittsburgh is second last in both yards and points per drive. Defensively, they are 23rd in yards per drive and outside the top 20 in both net yards per pass allowed and yards per carry. 

However,  one thing they do well has been the one thing to propels them to success: turnover margin. Pittsburgh has committed just six turnovers on the and forced 12, which is the second-best on a per-game basis. The Steelers have won the turnover battle in four of their games and lost it in two. Those numbers perfectly correlate with their wins and losses on the year.

Against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh should once again have opportunities to create turnovers. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith have been terrors for opposing quarterbacks as both are top-12 edges, per Pro Football Focus. Those elite pass rushers will be facing the Jaguars' tackles, both of which rank 40th or higher per PFF. 

Offensively, Pittsburgh has relied on one or two big plays from George Pickens to be enough to win. Last week, Diontae Johnson returned opposite Pickens and it showed. Johnson had five catches for 79 yards. This dynamic duo has an extremely tough test this week as the Jags have the top–graded coverage unit, per PFF.  

The 'Jags have been a team that starts fast and then coasts on their lead until the end of the game. Their first half-point differential is +5.2 and their second-half-point differential is -1.3.  This plays perfectly into their defense as teams are then forced to throw into their top-rated coverage unit.

If Jacksonville pulls ahead early, on top of the defensive benefit, they will also be limiting T.J. Watt’s effectiveness. The 'Jags will be able to run the ball and play conservatively instead of looking for explosive plays. This will reduce the number of times Watt has a chance to create a turnover to help the hampered offense.

Pittsburgh has relied too much on turnovers and explosive plays to continue finding success in the second half of games. Per our Luck Rankings, Pittsburgh is by far the most fortunate team, and against better competition, I expect that to change.