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Jaguars-Titans TNF Preview: Even Bad Games Present Betting Value

Dec 06, 2018 5:48 PM EST

Reinhold Matay, USA Today Sports. Pictured: TJ Yeldon, Kevin Byard

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

  • Spread: Titans -5
  • Over/Under: 37.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX/Amazon Prime/NFL Network

>> All odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: This is what some folks would call “a game only a bettor could love” because there’s really no reason to watch this over, say, “The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause.”

At the time of writing, two-thirds of the bets are coming in on the Titans, as clearly the public hasn’t bought into the Cody Kessler Experience. The line had been pretty quiet, sticking around 4/4.5 up until Thursday morning, when it bumped up to 5 (see live betting data here).

Though 55% of bets are on the over, this total has dropped from 38 to 37.5, taking the upper hand in the battle of lowest total of the week against the Jets-Bills game. —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Jaguars shut out the Colts in Week 13. Since 2003, teams that allowed no points the previous week are 43-52-1 (45%) against the spread in their next game.

If the team had a losing record, like the Jags, they are 6-15 ATS. — John Ewing

The Titans and Jaguars rank in the top five in points allowed and in the bottom six in points scored. Oh, and their combined totals for points allowed per game + points scored per game are the two lowest in the NFL.

Sounds like an under play right? Not so fast. When a game features two teams that are scoring and allowing fewer than 21 points per game, the over is 77-54 (+18.5 units), per our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams



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