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Lions vs Jaguars Odds, Pick, Prediction: The Side To Bet in NFL Week 13

Lions vs Jaguars Odds, Pick, Prediction: The Side To Bet in NFL Week 13 article feature image
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Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.

Lions vs Jaguars Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Lions Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-115
51
-110o / -110u
-110
Jaguars Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-105
51
-110o / -110u
-110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dan Campbell and the Lions are back to doing what they do best: covering the spread. Detroit may not have beaten Buffalo on Thanksgiving, but the Lions were able to comfortably cover the spread for the fourth consecutive week.

However, after thriving in some of those underdog spots, the Lions are the tiniest of home favorites on Sunday as Jameson Williams is set to make his NFL debut at wide receiver. Jacksonville enters the Motor City just a week removed from its stunning 28-27 win against Baltimore after Doug Pederson’s gutsy decision to go for two in the game’s final minute.

Detroit and Jacksonville may not have realistic playoff expectations, but given the recent performances of both offenses, there’s reason to think this matchup could be heavily featured on NFL RedZone. This should be one of the highest scoring games on the Sunday slate.

The market has flipped from Jacksonville as a slight favorite to Detroit, but the market has overreacted here.

Lions vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Lions and Jaguars match up statistically:

Lions vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 14 24
Pass DVOA 11 19
Rush DVOA 22 26
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 12 26
Pass DVOA 14 30
Rush DVOA 9 13

If someone had told you this at the beginning of the season, it may have sounded crazy, but both Detroit and Jacksonville rank inside the top eight in first down series conversion rate. Both offenses have been excellent at converting first downs to keep drives moving.

The Jaguars offense has been especially impressive on early downs all season long, a credit to Pederson’s offensive play calling. The Jaguars are top five in the league in early down success rate and rank seventh in EPA/play on early downs. Jacksonville’s offense has gotten bogged down in the red zone, where it becomes a below average unit.


Bet Jacksonville vs. Detroit at FanDuel


History suggests red zone stats tend to be noisy and that the best red zone offenses are just the ones that get there the most. I don’t read too much into the Jaguars’ red zone struggles and think this is an excellent game for positive regression. The Lions defense has improved in the past month — there was nowhere to go but up — but the Jaguars still won’t have to overcome a high-pressure rate from Detroit.

The Lions are last in the NFL in pass rush win rate and that means Trevor Lawrence will have plenty of time to throw and carve up what is still a bad secondary in Detroit.

Detroit’s offense isn’t quite as good as Jacksonville’s on a down-to-down basis, but the Lions make up for it with their elite — and unsustainable — red zone success. Detroit has been really good on the ground inside the 20 this season, but Jacksonville’s defensive run scheme should limit the Lions’ ability to get free yards up the middle on rushes.

The Lions rank second in the NFL in touchdown percentage in the red zone, trailing only the Eagles. Detroit’s offense has been good, but it’s much closer to league average on early downs. The Lions are 15th in early down success rate and EPA/play.

Betting Picks

There’s a massive difference between Lawrence’s production when under pressure vs. clean pockets this season. He has 13 big-time throws, just four turnover worthy plays and an 88 Pro Football Focus grade from a clean pocket this season. That has amounted to 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and 7.1 yards per attempt. When under pressure, Lawrence’s grade drops to 27.7 with 11 turnover worthy plays.

If you can get to Lawrence and play solid man defense, you can shut down the Jaguars offense. Lawrence also grades out better against zone coverage than man. So, while the Lions do play a lot of man defense, they don’t get enough pressure to supplement it.

The result will be many clean pockets for Lawrence. The Jaguars have had so many close losses and are better than their record indicates.

The Jaguars defensive line isn’t elite by any stretch, but they do rank seventh in pass rush win rate. They have more talent along the front to rattle Goff a few times. Like Lawrence, Goff is horrendous when under pressure.

Detroit was clearly undervalued in the market over the past few weeks, playing against overvalued teams like the Packers, Bills and Giants. But now, as a toss-up against a better Jaguars team, I’ll take Lawrence and Pederson’s offense to carve up the Lions secondary.

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