Jets vs. Jaguars Odds & Picks: Can Sam Darnold Bounce Back to Cover?

Jets at Jaguars Odds & Picks

• Odds: Jaguars -6.5
• Over/Under: 41
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Jets are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 loss to the Patriots on Monday night. Will Sam Darnold be able to shake off the worst game of his career in Jacksonville?

Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick.

Jets-Jaguars Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Neither team is healthy

The Jets have more than 12 players listed on their injury report. The most notable is LB C.J. Mosley (groin), who has missed two practices after playing in his first game since Week 1. They also added Jamison Crowder (knee) on Thursday, but he still managed a limited practice.

Dede Westbrook (shoulder/neck) is the biggest injury to monitor for Jacksonville. He hasn’t practiced at all this week, but he followed a similar routine in Week 7 and ultimately ended up playing. Additionally, three of their linebackers didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, which could be great for Le’Veon Bell if they’re unable to play. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Leonard Fournette vs. Jets Defense

While the Jets run defense has been strong — they're sixth in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA — they haven’t seen a running back quite as versatile as Fournette.

The third-year running back has produced against every team he’s faced this season, including four consecutive games with at least 118 total yards. He also ranks top 10 among all running backs in both targets and receptions.

Fournette's efficiency in the passing game is a problem for a Jets team that's allowed the sixth-most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs despite already having their bye. In their 33-0 Monday Night Football loss to New England, the Jets allowed seven receptions to James White and three rushing touchdowns to Sony Michel.

Fournette is the NFL’s second-leading rusher and will present the biggest mismatch against a Jets team hoping to rebound from their Week 7 embarrassment. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Jaguars -7
• Projected Total: 40

The Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars defense will seem like a breath of fresh air for Darnold after having to face the Patriots last week. It’s still a bit concerning that he was quoted as “seeing ghosts” in the pocket — typically that’s an observation an analyst may make on a QB during a game, so it’s alarming when the player admits it. Darnold may need one more game to get his season back on track after missing a few games due to mono.

I would lean toward the Jaguars at this number as they’re also popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model. However, the Jets’ passing metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt as third-stringer Luke Falk has started half their games.

I think it’s best to pass on this matchup. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

John Ewing: Under 41

An early forecast for this game calls for windy conditions (12 mph). Blustery weather can impact the passing and kicking games, which creates a low-scoring environment.

Historically, it's been profitable to bet the under in windy games.

Not only do the windy conditions point to the under, but these teams match up well defensively against the other's offensive strengths. The Jets ranks ninth in defensive rushing DVOA, while the Jaguars have attempted the sixth most carries this season.

The Jets have the ninth-highest passing play percentage (63%) in the NFL and will go up against the Jags secondary that's in the top-half of the league in passing yards allowed per game.

I'd bet the under down to 40 points.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]