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Miles Sanders Player Props: Expert Pick for Packers vs Eagles

Miles Sanders Player Props: Expert Pick for Packers vs Eagles article feature image
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Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Miles Sanders.

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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards

Prop Miles Sanders Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Matchup Packers vs. Eagles
Day, Time Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
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The Week 12 Sunday slate ends in Philadelphia, where the Eagles look to notch their tenth win of the season against the Packers.

The Eagles rank third with a +8.0 margin of victory, but the last two weeks have been foreign to them. Jalen Hurts and company found themselves in negative game scripts against the Commanders and Colts, which resulted in higher pass rates over expectation and fewer rushing opportunities.

Sanders failed to exceed this prop in those games, but I believe that changes in a good buy low-spot tonight. The Packers’ defensive identity has been as a run-funnel team — according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, they rank 28th against the run compared to 12th against the pass.

Green Bay’s game plan was to stack the box on Derrick Henry in Week 11, which resulted in a low 3.14 YPC, but for the season, they are surrendering 4.85 YPC (fifth most).

Oddsmakers list Sanders’ rushing attempts at 14.5. The past seven of eight running backs with at least fifteen carries exceeded 67 yards.

As -6.5 favorites in what should be a good game script, I expect Hurts and the Eagles to establish the run, making me love Sanders to hit his rushing yards over.

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