Best Saints-Panthers MNF Player Props: Tre’Quan Smith Over/Under 3.0 Receptions?

Best Saints-Panthers MNF Player Props: Tre’Quan Smith Over/Under 3.0 Receptions? article feature image
  • There are two player props on Monday Night Football that have value according to our metrics.
  • Will Saints wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith go over 3.0 receptions against the Panthers?

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Saints-Panthers matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.

So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.

*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday

Panthers WR Jarius Wright

The pick: Under 26.5 receiving yards (-115) and Under 2.5 receptions (-140)

Wright’s implied odds have the biggest discrepancy with our projections. I like the under on both of these bets given how sparingly he is used within the offense.

Wright is averaging just 22.78 routes per game this year, and over the past six weeks, he’s seen just 8.5% of the Panthers’ target share, which equates to 2.8 targets per game and an 8.7% target rate (targets/snap).

He is likely the sixth receiving option in this offense, behind wide receivers D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Devin Funchess, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Ian Thomas.

Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

The pick: Under 3.0 receptions (-115)

Since running back Mark Ingram returned to the lineup, quarterback Drew Brees has had massive pass splits. In Weeks 1-4, Brees averaged 40.25 pass attempts per game. In Weeks 5-14, he’s averaged 28.22 pass attempts.

Additionally, since Week 9, wide receiver Michael Thomas has soaked up 30.5% of the Saints’ target share. Meanwhile, Smith has seen just 11.5% while averaging 3.2 targets per game and a 6.8% target rate.

And Smith’s target numbers are bolstered by his 13-target game against the Eagles in Week 11. Otherwise, since Week 9 he’s seen three or fewer targets in each game. Smith has exceeded three receptions in just one game the entire season.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories