Best Saints-Panthers MNF Player Props: Tre’Quan Smith Over/Under 3.0 Receptions?
- There are two player props on Monday Night Football that have value according to our metrics.
- Will Saints wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith go over 3.0 receptions against the Panthers?
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Saints-Panthers matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.
So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday
Panthers WR Jarius Wright
The pick: Under 26.5 receiving yards (-115) and Under 2.5 receptions (-140)
Wright’s implied odds have the biggest discrepancy with our projections. I like the under on both of these bets given how sparingly he is used within the offense.
Wright is averaging just 22.78 routes per game this year, and over the past six weeks, he’s seen just 8.5% of the Panthers’ target share, which equates to 2.8 targets per game and an 8.7% target rate (targets/snap).
He is likely the sixth receiving option in this offense, behind wide receivers D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Devin Funchess, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Ian Thomas.
Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith
The pick: Under 3.0 receptions (-115)
Since running back Mark Ingram returned to the lineup, quarterback Drew Brees has had massive pass splits. In Weeks 1-4, Brees averaged 40.25 pass attempts per game. In Weeks 5-14, he’s averaged 28.22 pass attempts.
Additionally, since Week 9, wide receiver Michael Thomas has soaked up 30.5% of the Saints’ target share. Meanwhile, Smith has seen just 11.5% while averaging 3.2 targets per game and a 6.8% target rate.
And Smith’s target numbers are bolstered by his 13-target game against the Eagles in Week 11. Otherwise, since Week 9 he’s seen three or fewer targets in each game. Smith has exceeded three receptions in just one game the entire season.