Saints vs Rams Prediction: NFL Pick Week 16
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Saints vs Rams Prediction: NFL Pick Week 16
Saints vs Rams odds have Los Angeles installed as a 4-point favorite on the spread with an over/under of 45.5 total points. My NFL pick for the game is backing early points being scored at SoFi Stadium.
The surging Rams continued their postseason push in emphatic fashion on Sunday, making easy work of the Commanders to improve to 7-7 on the season. Next up for L.A. is a Saints squad riding a two-game winning streak and on the heels of the first-place Buccaneers in the NFC South.
How will this TNF battle between two playoff hopefuls play out? Find out in my Thursday Night Football betting preview, which includes my Saints vs Rams prediction.
Saints vs Rams Prediction, Pick
Saints vs Rams Odds
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
When the Saints Have the Ball
The Saints have dealt with injuries at wide receiver over the second half of the season.
Michael Thomas hasn’t played since Week 10 and is still on injured reserve. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were both forced out of the game against the Falcons in Week 12. Shaheed returned to action on Sunday against the Giants, but Olave was held out due to an ankle injury.
Olave, however, is expected to play on Thursday night. Assuming Olave and Shaheed play and make it through the game, it would be the first time Derek Carr has had his top two WRs since Week 10.
The timing is perfect, as the Rams have allowed 101 yards per game on pass attempts 15-plus yards downfield (the third-highest rate in the league). CBs Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick are both to blame, as they each rank top 15 in receptions allowed 15-plus yards downfield.
Olave and Shaheed are both downfield threats, and Olave has seen the fourth-most targets 15-plus yards downfield, so his return is massive. I expect the Saints to try to take advantage of the Rams in that respect.
As for Carr, he is coming off a solid game against the Giants and should be able build off that considering the weapons he’ll have at his disposal.
The main concern for the Saints offense is the absence of RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee). Backup Landon Young was solid in pass protection in relief last week, as he didn’t allow a single pressure on 30 dropbacks. However, he struggled in run blocking. That means Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill could struggle running to the right side.
Saints vs Rams Picks | FanDuel
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When the Rams Have the Ball
Matthew Stafford has been playing at a high level over the last four weeks, a stretch in which he ranks in the top three in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), QB rating and EPA per play.
Aiding Stafford’s cause is the fact that Cooper Kupp looks to finally be operating at 100%. Kupp shreds man coverage and now gets to face a Saints defense that utilizes man at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Not only that, New Orleans tends to funnel targets to slot receivers — CB Alontae Taylor has allowed 84 targets, 57 receptions and 526 yards to the position (all league highs).
Needless to say, that’s a matchup I expect the Rams to exploit. In general, they should be able to move the ball against an overrated Saints defense.
RT Rob Havenstein is expected to return after missing Week 15 with a groin injury. He’s a top-two offensive lineman for the Rams, so his availability is very important.
Saints vs Rams Pick & Prediction
I’m in line with the spread and total, so I had to get creative for my pick.
I mentioned that the Saints offense should get a boost with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed back in the fold. The Rams can also exploit the Saints’ weakness defending the slot with Cooper Kupp.
I did some digging and discovered that the Saints have gone 8-4 to the first quarter over while the Rams are 8-6. There seems to be some predictiveness, too, as the Saints operate at the third-fastest pace in the first quarter while the Rams are the seventh-fastest and use the fourth-highest no-huddle rate.
Both teams tend to be much more willing to play at a fast pace out of the gate in order to catch the defense off guard with their scripted plays, which can help skew more points inside the first quarter than expected.
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I have two more reasons why I like this angle, though they are a bit speculative, so take them for what they’re worth …
1) For the Super Bowl I do extensive timeout analysis in order to find potential value on the first timeout prop. I found that Sean McVay is careless with timeouts (and have noticed this about him ever since). He tends to burn timeouts when he doesn’t like a formation or as a way to bail his team out of a situation.
McVay’s not too concerned about saving them to potentially stop the clock in the two-minute offense before the half (comparatively, Nick Sirianni is excellent at this). We have higher chances of McVay burning a timeout (or two) in the first quarter, potentially stopping the clock and giving us the ever-so-sacred extra couple of plays in the first.
2) The game is in L.A. on a Thursday night. As a local, I guarantee you plenty of fans will be stuck in traffic when the game starts.
Games at SoFi Stadium tend not to have many die-hard Rams fans, but we can expect plenty of Saints fans in attendance. The environment, at least early on, shouldn’t impact the Saints too much when they have the ball, so I don’t expect them to be prone to things like false starts (which help favor the under).
A tame crowd that might not be at full capacity in the first 15 minutes of the game only helps the first quarter over.
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