Koerner: How I’m Looking to Live Bet Colts-Chiefs

I release my projected spreads and over/unders for each week's games on Wednesdays, comparing them to posted odds to identify the best bets. But sometimes the market is a little too close to my projections, and better value can be found in-game.

So which games could be worth a live bet in Week 5?

Let's take a look at the numbers we should look to grab in these two games:

• Buccaneers at Saints: 1 p.m. ET
• Colts at Chiefs: 8:20 p.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Buccaneers at Saints

Odds: Saints -3; 45.5
My Projections: Saints -4; 48.5

The Buccaneers don't play at home again until Week 10, which means we'll very much be looking to fade them over that stretch. The fact that they opened this brutal stretch with a convincing road win over the Rams is only going to offer us more value down the road. However, this doesn't appear to be the spot to fade them quite yet as the Saints are another team we'll want to fade in the short term.

Despite having a -8 point differential, the Saints are 3-1. They've been able to eek out back-to-back wins with Teddy Bridgewater under center while Drew Brees recovers from thumb surgery.

One thing to note is that the Bucs are a pass funnel defense. They've managed to shut down Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley over the past three weeks. On the flip side, they've allowed 330-plus yards to Cam Newton, Daniel Jones and Jared Goff over that same stretch. The Saints might have to game-plan Bridgewater to be less of a game manager and force the issue downfield to take advantage of this specific matchup.

I think this sets up as a potential in-play over bet if the Saints either lean on the passing game more early on or if the Bucs take an early lead.

Colts at Chiefs

Odds: Chiefs -11; 56
My Projections: Chiefs -10; 55.5

Everything about this matchup favors the over.

The Chiefs should impose their will on an Indy defense that's been disappointing. On the other side of the ball, Jacoby Brissett has done a much better job replacing Andrew Luck in this offense than we saw in 2017. Brissett has much better coaching and talent around him to put up points if needed. This week they'll need him to be much more aggressive in order to keep up with the Chiefs.

Unfortunately, the market is completely aware of the scoring environment of this matchup and there isn't much value in the current total. If the Colts happen to take an early lead, it'll help the case for the over even more since the Chiefs will likely get even more aggressive on offense to mount a comeback, in which case I'll consider an in-game bet.