NFL Divisional Futures Odds, Analysis: Rams, Lions, Colts Getting Love
(Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
With one week remaining in the preseason, bettors are thinking about which squads will earn divisional honors when the regular season gets going.
Over at BetMGM, there are some consistent trends as some teams are getting heavy action while others are not getting a lot of love.
In each conference, one team is dominating the handle. The reigning Super Bowl champion Rams lead the way in the NFC, with 57.8% of the betting tickets and 77.9% of the handle in the futures/NFC West market.
The Rams have moved from +150 to +125, but the bigger drop in the division came for the 49ers, who shifted from +230 to +175. They've received 20.5% of the tickets and 13.3% of the handle.
Much like other futures markets, the Lions are receiving a ton of action to win the NFC North. Detroit has gotten 55.8% of the tickets and 48.5% of the handle, though it has moved longer, from +800 to +850.
The Packers are the NFC North favorites, listed at -155.
| Division | Most Tickets | Biggest Handle |
|---|---|---|
| NFC North | Lions | Lions |
| NFC West | Rams | Rams |
| NFC South | Saints | Buccaneers |
| NFC East | Eagles | Eagles |
| AFC North | Bengals | Ravens |
| AFC West | Broncos | Chargers |
| AFC South | Colts | Colts |
| AFC East | Bills | Bills |
In the NFC East, it's the Eagles that are favored by bettors. Philly accounts for 58.8% of the wagers and 67.6% of the handle, moving from +300 to +160 in the process.
Over in the AFC, the Colts are the team being steamrolled by bettors. Indianapolis has gotten 59.2% of the tickets and a whopping 85.8% of the handle. It's moved from +140 to -140 in the process.
The AFC North is the most balanced division in terms of tickets and handle. No team accounts for more than 33% of the tickets, and no team has more than 38% of the handle.
Cleveland is an outlier in the sense that it has gotten so little action. The Browns have received 5.3% of the tickets and 3.6% of the handle.
Bettors believe a surprise could be brewing in the AFC West, where the Broncos have gotten 31.4% of the betting tickets and 29.7% of the handle, moving from +400 to +260.
Like the Rams, the Chargers have also taken significant action. The Chargers have moved from +375 to +250, and the Raiders have shifted from +800 to +650.
The favored Chiefs have gotten just 10.8% of the tickets and 10.5% of the handle.
Finally in the AFC East, the Bills have gotten 38.1% of the tickets and 62.9% of the handle. Interestingly, the Patriots have received just 11.4% of the tickets and 5.2% of the handle, moving from +320 to +475.
Which are the best divisional prices to take advantage of? Our NFL analyst Brandon Anderson gives his thoughts below.
Brandon Anderson's Divisional Market Analysis
The Eagles have been a trendy sleeper pick all offseason, but I’m still seeing value betting the Eagles to win the NFC East. Even with the line dropping all summer, Philadelphia is not yet the favorite – and I think it should be.
Philly has the best offensive line in the NFL and a unique smash-mouth offense that runs the ball as well as any team in the league. It has also now added stud WR A.J. Brown.
The Eagles have a potential top-five defense with a deep and dangerous defensive front that added first-round pick Jordan Davis. The only big question is QB Jalen Hurts.
If we ignore quarterback play, my model rating NFL rosters puts Philadelphia second in the entire league, far ahead of Dallas at No. 11. The Eagles have a better run game, better receivers, and a far more talented secondary and defense. Quarterbacks count, but Hurts is good enough to make the Eagles a clear division favorite for me and a must-play at +170 at FanDuel.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the other division play I’m making at +250 to win the AFC West. The Chargers already ranked just one spot behind the Chiefs offensively in DVOA last fall before Tyreek Hill left. Meanwhile, LA may have the league’s most improved defense with the additions of Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, and help on the line.
Los Angeles has the best defense in the division – far better than Kansas City – and arguably the best all-around roster. The Chiefs are rightly the favorite, but I like the Chargers almost as much, and both are well ahead of Denver and Las Vegas. At an implied 28.6% to win the division, the Chargers are too good a price to pass up.
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