NFL Expert Picks: Rams-Saints, Packers-Patriots, Chiefs-Browns, More Week 9 Bets

Nov 04, 2018 9:00 AM EST
  • The Action Network experts break down their favorite NFL bets for Week 9, including Rams-Saints and Packers-Patriots.
  • Also find out what bet we like in Ravens-Steelers and the Monday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Titans.
  • Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Chiefs-Browns, Jets-Dolphins, Texans-Broncos and more.

I think Nick Mullens (who?) just threw another touchdown.

With another terrible Thursday Night Football game behind us, we know we won’t have to suffer through either the 49ers or Raiders on Sunday. Instead, we can focus on more intriguing Week 9 storylines, including:

  • Will the Steelers get revenge from an earlier season loss and hand their rival Ravens a third-straight loss?
  • Will the home Saints be the team to finally topple the Rams — the NFL’s lone remaining undefeated team?
  • How will an epic showdown between two of the NFL’s all-time great quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers play out on Sunday Night Football?

Our staff has angles on each of those three highly-anticipated matchups, plus valuable betting insight into the rest of Week 9’s slate.

We actually have a consensus on three games this week: Chiefs-Browns, Saints-Rams and Patriots-Packers. We also have a selection for the Monday Night Football matchup in Dallas between the Titans and Cowboys.

For even more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out our betting guides for every single game.

Our staff picks now sit at 68-60-11 (53.1%) for the season. Let’s take a look at our 18 favorite bets for Week 9 and have a profitable weekend together. Stuckey


>> All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


SUNDAY’S EARLY ACTION

Evan Abrams: Ravens 1H -1.5

1 pm ET on CBS

The Ravens have lost back-to-back games SU and ATS entering Week 9, including a double digits loss to the Panthers last Sunday. They are primed for a bounce back and I think it will happen early at home.

In his career, Joe Flacco is 48-28-4 (63.2%) against the first half spread at home, and since the start of the 2016 season, the Ravens are 6-1 against the first half spread at home after an SU loss, covering the spread by 4.3 ppg.

Additionally, Flacco has had success against the Steelers in the first half, going 12-6 against the first half spread in 18 career meetings, including 6-1 at home.

A lazy narrative this week may be that Steelers want revenge after losing to the Ravens a month ago, but in Ben Roethlisberger’s career he is just 30-35-1 ATS when trying to avenge an SU loss.

He is 4-9-1 ATS in that spot against the Ravens, failing to cover five of his past six games in that spot.

PJ Walsh: Jets-Dolphins Under 43.5

1 p.m. ET on CBS

Both teams struggle to move the ball through the air, ranking 29th (Jets) and 19th (Dolphins) in passing efficiency per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The weather forecast won’t do either passing offense any favors either as Miami is expecting steady 11-12 mph winds throughout Sunday’s game.

According to our Bet Labs data, unders are 447-354-10 (55.8%) in NFL games played in double-digit winds since 2003.

These are also two of the slowest teams in the NFL with the Dolphins ranking 27th and Jets 31st, respectively, in situation-neutral seconds per play according to Football Outsiders.

Two slow offenses that don’t throw the ball efficiently playing in windy conditions doesn’t bode well for a high-scoring game.

Matt LaMarca: Jets +3

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Dolphins have been better than expected this season, but they’re clearly not the same team with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. He caught the Bears off guard in his first start (winning 31-28), but has since lost by 11 to the Lions and by 19 to the Texans.

Overall, Osweiler is 10-17-1 ATS as a starting quarterback, so we have a pretty large sample size that this guy is #notgood at quarterback. The Jets are also getting healthier in their secondary, and they’ve been solid on defense: They currently rank 10th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.

I’m taking the points.

Sean Koerner: Lions +5

1 p.m. ET on FOX

The Vikings defense has been fairly average this year — likely due to numerous injuries they’ve had to deal with in 2018. And this week, shutdown CB Xavier Rhodes and S Andrew Sendejo are banged up and are game-time decisions.

Despite getting rid of Golden Tate via trade, the Lions offense has enough firepower to pick up the slack. Look for them to continue using impressive rookie RB Kerryon Johnson in an expanded role, making their offense more balanced than it’s been in nearly a decade.

Detroit also made a key addition to address its main weakness, run defense, by acquiring Damon “Snacks” Harrison last week from the Giants. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Lions won outright, so I’ll gladly take the generous five points.

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kareem Hunt and Antonio Brown

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
45
+3
45
+4
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
47
+9.5
46.5
+9.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
55
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
38
+3
37.5
+3
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-10
47.5
+3.5
47
+3
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
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