NFL How to Bet Week 4: Road Underdogs Went 7-1 ATS Last Week, Have Outperformed Market Since 2018
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevon Diggs (Cowboys)
Road underdogs went 7-1 against the spread (ATS) last week and have been gangbusters over the last five seasons.
Dogs on the road are now 373-294-19 ATS since the 2018 NFL season, good for a 7% ROI and a profit of about $5,500 for $100 per game bettors.
For reference, the S&P 500 is up about 5.25% per year since 2018, if you invested using dollar cost averaging instead of a single lump sum.
Road underdogs are 15-8 ATS year-to-date for a return of $759.
For Week 4, here are the road underdogs. The lines at hand are the best market values for the team's spread and moneyline.
- Thursday: Dolphins(+4, +175) vs. Bengals
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Commanders (+3.5, +150) vs. Cowboys
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Seahawks (+5, +190) vs. Lions
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Titans (+3.5, +165) vs. Colts
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Bears (+3.5, +158) vs. Giants
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Jets (+3.5, +160) vs. Steelers
- Sunday, 4 p.m. ET: Patriots (+11, +420) vs. Packers
- Sunday, 4 p.m. ET: Cardinals (+2.5, +110) vs. Panthers
- Sunday, 4 p.m. ET: Broncos (+2.5, +120) vs. Raiders
- Monday: Rams (+2.5, +120) vs. 49ers
Last week, these were the teams this trend targeted. Note that the bets were submitted at their best market price at open one week before Week 3. The bolded teams all covered.
- Thursday: Steelers (+3.5, +155) vs. Browns
- Sunday: Texans (+3.5, +135) vs. Bears
- Sunday: Lions (+7.5, +270) vs. Vikings
- Sunday: Jaguars (+7, +275) vs. Chargers
- Sunday: Falcons (+3, +125) vs. Seahawks
- Sunday: Packers (+3, +142) vs. Buccaneers
- Sunday: 49ers (+120, +2.5) vs. Broncos
- Monday: Cowboys (+3, +140) vs. Giants
And keep in mind that it's the spread — not moneyline — that's been rolling.
While moneyline bets have returned a solid $516 for a very solid 22% ROI, spread picks beat it out with a 33% ROI clip so far this season.
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