Best NFL Playoff Bets: Has the Market Overreacted to Andrew Luck’s Retirement?


Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett

Sep 03, 2019, 08:15 AM EDT
  • The Patriots (-1150) and Saints (-320) are two of the most likely teams to make the NFL playoffs.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season and found four teams worth betting right now to make or miss the postseason.

Every NFL team wants to win the Super Bowl, but first has to make the playoffs.

According to the oddsmakers at FanDuel, the Patriots (-1150) and Saints (-320) are two of the most likely teams to reach the postseason, while the Cardinals (+790) and Dolphins (+790) are longshots.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are postseason staples but that doesn’t mean there is value wagering on them to make the playoffs. At -1150 odds, the Pats would need to make the playoffs 92.0% (1150/(100+1150)) of the time for us to feel comfortable making that wager.

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