Seahawks vs. Giants Odds & Picks: How To Factor Daniel Jones’ Absence Into Betting Sunday
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
Seahawks vs. Giants Odds
The Giants control their own destiny in the NFC East as the calendar flips to December, but will likely be without starting quarterback Daniel Jones for their trip out west to take on the Seahawks.
Jones is “doubtful” heading into Sunday so the expectation is that it’ll be Colt McCoy taking snaps under center for New York in Seattle.
At 4-7, the Giants are neck and neck with the Washington Football Team for the division lead, but it might be tough sledding come Sunday as evidenced by the line move following the news of Jones’ likely absence: The Seahawks are now 11-point favorites as they look to maintain their slender NFC West lead.
New York Giants
The Giants have performed above expectation this season: Despite the 4-7 record, they have played well against some high-level competition, posting a 7-4 record against the spread. In what seemed like a lost season after running back Saquon Barkley tore his ACL in Week 2, head coach Joe Judge’s club finds itself holding the lead in the division due to its strong defense.
This is a defensive unit that is “bend don’t break.” New York ranks in the top five in running back success rate allowed and allows a touchdown on 55% of red-zone opportunities (per Sharp Football Stats). Behind stud corner James Bradberry, the Giants do a strong job of limiting big plays against them, posting above-league-average marks in explosive runs and passes.
New York’s front seven does a fine job of getting pressure on the quarterback, which is going to be a necessity against Russell Wilson. The Giants rank seventh in pressures but are going to have to make sure they wrap up the slippery Wilson.
On offense, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Giants. Even against a weak Seahawks defense, McCoy is going to be asked to simply limit turnovers and find a way to methodically move the ball down the field. However, the Giants were struggling to move the chains even with Jones healthy: They’re averaging 4.9 yards per play, below the league average of 5.5.
Seattle’s defense is a bit banged up heading into this matchup. Cornerback Tre Flowers and recently-acquired defensive end Carlos Dunlap didn’t practice all week and are listed as doubtful and questionable, respectively.
Seattle’s one bright spot on defense has been its run defense, and it’s going to be on New York to get Wayne Gallman going early and often. Coming off a 94-yard performance last week against the Bengals, Gallman is going to need to show out against a Seattle defense that is yielding a 48% success rate to opposing running backs.
The key for the Giants is to turn the Seahawks offense over and win the field-position battle. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long day for a New York team that struggles to break 20 points and is down to its backup quarterback.
The “Let Russ Cook” movement in Seattle has seemingly ended over the past three weeks. The Seahawks’ rush attempts are up over that span, and their offensive line has started to let up. After being sacked 19 times in their first seven games of the season, Wilson has been sacked 16 times over the past four.
Despite the downtick lately, the Seahawks still have an explosive offense with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at wide receiver.
The Seahawks should be able to move the ball against a stout Giants defense that could become winded by being on the field so much. If New York can’t string together drives on offense, Wilson and Co. will eventually break through — a similar script to their Monday night win over the Eagles.
While the Giants do limit explosive plays, they do allow a pass success rate of 51%, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Wilson should be able to find his receivers and move the ball that way.
With the Giants missing Jones, the Seahawks will likely dial up the pressure even more than usual. Their defense has struggled for most of the season, but this is a good spot to play to its script and put extra men in the box — Seattle blitzes on 35% of downs, and against a relatively weak New York offensive line, applying pressure on McCoy is likely a great way to make plays.
Seattle tends to play down to its competition only to eventually close games, no matter the situation, so I will not be laying the points despite the fact that New York is going to struggle to generate many opportunities.
If Jones was playing, I would have been on the Giants at anything above a touchdown. However, I’m going to stay away from the spread and instead play the under.
The Giants’ defense is going to keep them in this one, and I do think they’ll be able to find some success at times offensively. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has been calling a sound game over the past several weeks, and even though he’s without his starting quarterback, Garrett has found ways to get the ball downfield for a limited Giants offense.
Garrett and Judge should, at the very least, have some plays drawn up that can get the ball out of Giants territory — and hopefully this becomes a punt fest.
Neither team plays fast whatsoever, ranking 19th and 20th in seconds per play. Seattle can put this away and possibly cover the spread against a wounded New York team, but this is a prideful Giants squad that will play tough.
PICK: Under 46.5 (down to 44.5)