Seahawks vs. Jets Odds & Picks: How To Bet This Lopsided Matchup
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Brian Schottenheimer, Russell Wilson
Seahawks vs. Jets Odds
The Seahawks the perfect get-right matchup as they look to rebound from a terrible loss to the Giants last week.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense were surprisingly held to only 12 points and 4.7 yards per play at home. The loss dropped them into a tie with the Rams for first place in the NFC West. And with the Rams beating the Patriots on Thursday night, the Seahawks need to beat the Jets to keep pace.
Meanwhile, the Jets remained winless in the most Jets possible way, giving up what was pretty much a Hail Mary on the second-to-last play of last week’s loss to the Raiders.
THIS IS THE MOST JETS THING EVER pic.twitter.com/KtfbCuNVx8
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 6, 2020
That led to the firing of defensive coordinator Greg “Dr. Heat” Williams, so the Jets may not be blitzing as much as they used to. They are 0-12 and full-on tank mode, but can the Jets repeat their 28-point performance — their most of the season? Even with a spread this high, it appears the betting value is on the total instead.
New York Jets
To say things are bad for the Jets offense would be an understatement: They are dead last in yards per play at 4.7, which is almost the exact same average they had last season.
The Jets’ main issue has been at quarterback. Joe Flacco has actually been better than Sam Darnold this season, throwing for more yards per attempt to go with a higher passer rating. Darnold returned two weeks ago and finally had a respectable performance, throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt against the Dolphins. However, his season average is a putrid 5.9 per attempt. He’s thrown just five touchdowns and nine interceptions and has led the Jets to the lowest-ranked offense in terms of passing success.
The running game hasn’t been there either, with 39-year-old Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine in the backfield. The duo has combined to only gain a measly 3.7 yards per carry.
The Seahawks struggle against the pass, so it will have to be on Darnold’s shoulder’s if Jets are going to get their first win of the season.
The Jets defense has been terrible against the pass this season. They rank 31st in defensive passing success and 23rd in explosive passing allowed while allowing 7.9 yards per attempt. That’s all going to be a problem against Wilson and Seahawks’ passing attack.
The real strength of the Jets’ defense can be found up front: They rank seventh in defensive rushing success, but the are No. 2 in terms of rushing success, so this will be one of the best rushing attacks the Jets have seen all season long.
Wilson and the Seahawks offense have taken a step backward over the past four games. They were humming over the first eight games of the season, gaining 6.38 yards per play. Over the past four, though, that has dropped down to 5.14.
Wilson himself has also taken a dip in efficiency, going from throwing for 8.6 yards per attempt at the beginning of the season to 6.8 over the last four games.
The running game has slowed down of late, even though starting back Chris Carson is finally healthy. Over their last four games, the Seahawks have gained only 4.4 yards per carry and ranked as the 17th best offense in terms of rushing success, according to Sharp Football Stats. However, through the first eight weeks of the season, they were No. 1 in the NFL in rushing success, so things are not trending in the right direction.
For the Seahawks to dominate the Jets, Wilson is going to have to cook their secondary because the run game is likely going to struggle.
While the Seahawks offense has taken a step back, the defense has gone to a different level. Over the past four weeks, Seattle is allowing only 4.91 yards per play, which is a far cry from the beginning of the season when the Seahawks couldn’t keep any team under 30 points.
The biggest improvement has come against the pass: Through the first eight games of the season, Seattle was allowing a whopping 8.1 yards per attempt and was 28th in defensive passing success per Sharp Football Stats. However, over the past four weeks, the Seahawks are allowing a measly 6.1 yards per attempt and are ninth in defensive passing success.
The Seahawks’ defense should keep trending up since they’re facing one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL.
With the Seahawks having their offense and defense going in opposite directions, combined with how poor the Jets offense has been this season, we should see a low-scoring game. There’s also some light rain/drizzle in the forecast that could play a factor for both offenses.
I have this total projected at 41.87, so there’s value on the under 47.5 — I would play it down to 45 points.
Pick: Under 47.5