Bills vs. Jaguars Odds, NFL Picks, Predictions: This Stefon Diggs Prop Offers Most Value In Week 9 Matchup
Bryan Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs.
- The Bills and Jaguars are on opposite ends of the NFL hierarchy, so here's the betting value on this game?
- After examining the Bills vs. Jaguars odds and matchup, our analyst determines the most valuable pick is on a Stefon Diggs prop.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After an impressive 26-11 victory last week against the Miami Dolphins at home, the Buffalo Bills look to continue their momentum when they visit TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.
The Bills (5-2) struggled throughout most of the game last week, but they came together in the fourth quarter behind strong performances from quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Cole Beasley. The Jaguars (1-7), meanwhile, found themselves on the wrong end of a 31-7 blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks on the road.
With a large 14.5-point spread, oddsmakers expect the Bills to win this one handily. If that holds true, should we look to the player prop market as a potential target spot for this Week 9 AFC matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Bills vs. Jaguars Injury Report
- OT Spencer Brown (ribs): Out
- G Jon Feliciano (calf): Out
- TE Dawson Knox (hand): Out
- WR Cole Beasley (ribs): Questionable
- S Jordan Poyer (shoulder): Questionable
- RB James Robinson (heel): Questionable
Bills vs. Jaguars Matchup
|Bills Offense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Defense|
|Bills Defense||DVOA Rank||Jaguars Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Bills Will Bulldoze Jags Defense
The Bills will look to take advantage of a dream matchup in against a struggling Jaguars defense. This 32nd-ranked unit has allowed 29.0 points per game to opposing offenses, with many of those matchups against offenses that are far inferior to this Buffalo group.
Allen will look to capitalize on the Jaguars’ 32nd-ranked pass defense as well, particularly with top receiving option Stefon Diggs. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Diggs has the best overall matchup on the entire Week 9 slate, with a whopping 100.0 matchup advantage against his projected primary defenders. While Diggs only has one 100+ yard performance to date this year, he’s averaging 9.3 targets per game and should find plenty of opportunity against this porous unit.
The Bills should also have no issues running the ball when they choose to do so. Running backs Devin Singletary and Zach Moss, along with Allen, make up a three-headed monster and will all have plenty of opportunities against this 14th-ranked Jaguars rush defense. The Bills rush attack has compiled 886 yards so far on the season, 12th-most among all teams. They should easily be able to exceed the 103 yards they combined for last week.
Jaguars Have Few Options For Victory
There haven’t been many positives for the Jaguars this season. In fact, other than Trevor Lawrence getting reps and showing steady progress against NFL defenses, there really isn’t anything positive to say at all. Unfortunately, that narrative isn’t likely to change on Sunday.
Lawrence will have a tough task against this Bills’ top-ranked defense this week, particularly when throwing the ball. Buffalo’s pass defense also ranks as the best unit in the league thus far, creating a nightmare scenario for a rookie quarterback working with a receiving unit that has struggled.
In fact, this game could not be between two more polar opposite teams. Per The Football Database, the Bills rank first overall with a +13 turnover differential, while the Jaguars rank dead last with a -11 ratio. If these numbers hold true, this game could get out of hand quickly.
The Jaguars’ best chance at any success is by establishing the run early, but even that will be difficult against a Bills rush defense that currently ranks fifth-best among all teams. Frankly, I expect the Jaguars to be stalled in all facets of the game in this one.
NFL Pick: Bills vs. Jaguars
Given the disparities between these two teams, I expect the Bills to be able to pick their poison in this one, which means we should see a big day from Allen and the passing game.
The biggest beneficiary of this will undoubtedly be Diggs. His matchup literally could not be any better, as highlighted earlier with his 100.0 matchup advantage against this pass defense. If he sees his average of nine targets per outing, we could be looking at a ceiling game for him. In fact, if we account for the fact that he’s averaging 12.0 yards per reception, his yardage prop in this one should be in the range of 108 yards. His actual prop? 81.5 yards.
The biggest risk here is that the game gets out of hand too quickly via turnovers and/or defensive touchdowns, but the more likely scenario is an offensive outpouring by this Bills offense. Book the over with confidence ahead of what should be a monster performance from Allen and Diggs on Sunday.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 81.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to: 85.5
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