Packers vs. Titans Odds, Picks & Predictions: 4 Ways to Bet Sunday Night Football
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
A case for both sides of the spread. A pair of running back props.
Our staff breaks down how they’re betting the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Packers and Titans below.
Brandon Anderson: The Packers and Titans are mirror images of each other in many ways. Both teams have been unstoppable on offense all season — and both have needed to be because neither one can do much of anything on defense or special teams.
The Titans lead the NFL in points per game while the Packers are third. Both teams rank in the top three in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA, and if you’re wondering, yes — it’s the Chiefs that are the third team in both instances. That should tell you just how good both of these offenses have been.
Aaron Rodgers is very much in the MVP conversation. Ryan Tannehill isn’t, but probably should be. Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry are superb workhorse runners. And Davante Adams and A.J. Brown are stud lead receivers.
Defenses have barely kept up with these teams all season, and the defenses look like they’ll have no chance.
Green Bay’s defense is below average overall and ranks bottom five in passing defensive DVOA. Tennessee’s entire defense ranks bottom five and has the third-worst passing defensive DVOA. In short, Rodgers and Tannehill should have field days in what sure looks like a shootout, unless the frigid Green Bay weather and the Lambeau tundra slow things down.
In many ways, Tennessee is just a slightly worse version of Green Bay in the end. The Titans are even worse defensively with worse pass catchers and — no matter how good you think Tannehill has been (and he has been great!) — clearly the worst quarterback of the two.
Tennessee’s only real edge is Henry, but Jones is one of the best backs in the league, too.
The Titans defense has been their Achilles heel: There are games when their D simply cannot get off the field enough to let their offense cook, and this sure feels like that sort of game. The Titans are far better when they can run the ball, control the clock and use that to set up the playaction down the field. They’re not nearly as deadly playing from behind, and it’s hard to imagine this Tennessee defense having any real shot against Green Bay.
The Titans are 10-4, but six of their wins have come by one score. They’re having to hold on for dear life because the defense is so bad. The Packers won nine of their 11 wins by at least a touchdown.
If the Packers win, they typically take care of business. And I like the Packers to take care of business on Sunday night.
The NFC’s 1-seed is in their sights now, and they know just how hard it is to come to Lambeau and win in January. The Packers can win a shootout or a frozen tundra game, and you’d certainly rather have Rodgers if the game is close in the final minutes.
Grab the Packers at -3 if you can still find it at kickoff, but I’m not afraid to play to -4 if needed. Green Bay should take care of business like they have all season.
Matthew Freedman: I’m a pretty simple person: I like to bet on quarterbacks who win, and Rodgers wins.
For his career, he’s 117-84-5 against the spread (ATS) for a 13.9% Return On Investment (ROI). And he’s been especially dominant at home, going 57-33-3 ATS (23.3% ROI) at Lambeau Field.
Chris Raybon: The Titans’ over record is 10-3-1 this season and 19-4-1 in Ryan Tannehill’s 24 career starts as a Titan, but I would worry about this game going over if the forecast holds. Snow doesn’t tend to much much of a factor, but double-digit winds have proven to lower efficiency in both the passing and kicking games.
As far as the side, I have this projected at Titans +1.75, so there’s a small edge at +3 and a larger edge if the line moves above the key number of 3 to +3.5 or higher.
Home-field advantage has all but evaporated around the NFL this season, and not even Lambeau is exempt: The Packers have failed to cover at home in three of their last five and are just 4-3 in Lambeau on the season. As of early Sunday afternoon, betting action has been nearly equal ticket-wise — 44% on the Titans 44% vs. 56% on the Packers (go to real-time public betting data) — but 89% of the money is on Tennessee, which means you’ll likely have to settle for +3 if you’re betting this pre-game.
After being the second-most profitable home-team against the spread from 2008-16 with a 43-26-1 (62.3%) record, the Packers have been middling since, going 16-15 ATS (51.6%) with a -1.34 cover margin according to our Bet Labs data. In terms of DVOA, the Titans have the edge over the Packers in rush offense (second vs. fifth) and rush defense (16th vs. 21st) — a key factor because of the weather.
Aaron Jones Over 70.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Sean Koerner: With the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line, the Packers should lean on Aaron Jones heavily tonight.
There are a few other factors working in Jones’ favor, too:
- The Packers will likely employ a run-heavy game plan with snow forecasted.
- They’ll welcome Corey Linsley back, whose 89.8 Pro Football Focus grade ranks first among all center — he should be a boost to their run game.
- Jamaal Williams is not expected to play, which means A.J. Dillon will back up Jones after the rookie returned only two weeks ago after missing a month due to COVID-19.
The Titans will have their hands full with Aaron Rogers and the passing offense, so it’s not like they can sell out to stop Jones. He’s faced an eight-man box only 19% of the time (30th out of 52) and should be able to break a few big runs.
I would bet this up to 75.5, but here are Jones’ projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
Derrick Henry Under 9.5 Rec Yards (-112)
Michael Arinze: It wouldn’t be December at Lambeau Field without some snow, cold temperatures and double-digit wind gusts in the weather forecast. That’s exactly what’s in store for NFL fans when they tune in for Sunday Night Football with temperatures expected to dip as low as 26 degrees with wind speeds close to 16 mph.
It’s interesting to consider which team has the advantage in this matchup as both have had success running the football with Green Bay averaging 4.7 yards per rush and Tennessee averaging 5.0 yards per carry. However, it’s the Titans who are much more of a rushing team with 50% of their offensive plays coming on the ground while the Packers run the ball 44% of the time.
With these difficult weather conditions, don’t expect teams to take too many risks or deviate from their playbooks. That should mean a heavy dose of Derrick Henry carrying the football.
Henry is averaging 119.9 yards per game and he’ll surely like to hit the 2,000-yard mark for the season. He’s not really used as a pass-catching back, and this wouldn’t be the game to mix those types of play calls in. Since Week 2, Henry hasn’t caught more than than two catches out of the backfield and is averaging 3.3 receiving yards per game.
Our FantasyLabs prop tool projects Henry to have five receiving yards in the game while DraftKings has placed the total at 9.5, creating significant value on the under. This looks too good to pass up and I’ll be sure to get my action in early while I can still can at this price. I would play this down to 8.5.