Zylbert’s NFL Over/Unders: How to Capitalize on Matt Patricia’s History Against Brock Osweiler

Zylbert’s NFL Over/Unders: How to Capitalize on Matt Patricia’s History Against Brock Osweiler article feature image

Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brock Osweiler

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

  • Over/Under: 47
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Channel: FOX

Zylbert’s 2018 NFL Over/Under Betting Record: 4-2-1, +1.8 units
Week 6’s Result: Cardinals-Vikings Over 43 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Apparently all you need now is one breakout game to have an entire month decreed in your honor.

Enter Brocktober.

The craze swept Miami when backup quarterback Brock Osweiler stepped in admirably for Ryan Tannehill last week and delivered a career-high 380 passing yards and three touchdowns en route to a thrilling overtime victory over the Bears at home.

But let’s emphasize something: It was one game. And it involved catching Chicago off-guard, as Osweiler was anointed as the starter only shortly before kickoff. (In fact, the league is investigating Miami’s handling of the injury report regarding Tannehill’s status).

Surely that played a role in Osweiler’s effective outing opposite a normally stout Bears defense that couldn’t have been as well-prepared.

Osweiler won’t have that luxury this week, which could spell trouble for the 2012 second-round draft choice who will be facing a coach who has enjoyed success against him in the past.

That would be Lions’ first-year head coach Matt Patricia, who faced Osweiler four times (including playoffs) as the Patriots’ defensive coordinator. The numbers indicate the battles went in Patricia’s favor, limiting the 6-foot-7 signal caller to 56.4% passing and three touchdowns to six interceptions over the four games.

Patricia has already seen his new defense perform wonders. The Lions hounded Tom Brady in one of his worst games in recent memory last month, and scored a victory over Aaron Rodgers in their last contest before the Week 6 bye. Overall, the 222 passing yards Detroit surrenders per game is the third-fewest allowed in the NFC.

Let’s also emphasize that this is Osweiler we’re talking about — someone who has never lived up to expectations in his multiple opportunities as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

You don’t have to go further back than Osweiler’s last stint as a full-time starter to gauge this. That was two seasons ago when he was with the Texans, when he finished with a depressing 72.2 passer rating.

The under went 8-6 in his 14 starts for Houston, and only one game exceeded a total of 47 points — the over/under for this Lions-Dolphins tilt.

It’s also worth noting that Osweiler has never thrown multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games. For someone who has made 28 starts (including playoffs), that’s pretty remarkable. His lack of playmakers in this offense also figures to extend that streak and help our cause.

While this relatively high under could mostly hinge on Osweiler, we’ll also hope for some sort of containment of the other quarterback in this affair.

There’s no denying the talent that Matthew Stafford plays with on a weekly basis: Kenny Golladay has emerged as a legitimate upper echelon wideout, and combined with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr., the Lions boast one of the most dangerous receiving trios in pro football. Rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has also stepped up in his freshman campaign to help fortify an improved rush attack.

However, there can be contrasting results when the Lions aren’t playing at home within the friendly indoor confines of Ford Field.

Stafford’s career passer rating is more than five points lower on the road (85.8) than at home (91.1). In a sample size that spans an entire decade, that’s pretty significant.

That discrepancy has affected his team’s scoring output. In each of Stafford’s previous nine seasons, Detroit has averaged fewer points per game on the road. Since starting every game since 2011, Stafford and the Lions have averaged 22.1 points per game away from Detroit, which pales in comparison to the 25.8 points per game they’ve recorded at home.

Weather conditions could also be of assistance for this under, with 10 mph winds expected in Miami.

If your book does not have this total at 47, I highly recommend buying the half-point.

Play: UNDER 47 (-110)