NFL Pick Saturday Week 16: Expert’s Favorite Over/Under Bet

NFL Picks Week 16

This week, my NFL picks and bets are divided between Saturday and Sunday. We'll reveal the spread I'm on for the main slate on Sunday, but for now, here's the total I've bet for Saturday night. Merry Christmas!

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The Bills defense has been playing at a high level lately, especially since acquiring cornerback Rasul Douglas in Week 9. Buffalo has ranked fifth in DVOA since then, and he’s been one of the best CBs in the league this season.

Buffalo just held the Chiefs and the Cowboys under 20 points over the past two weeks, and now it faces a Chargers offense that is being led by Easton Stick and will be without Keenan Allen again. Los Angeles also just lost starting center Will Clapp for the season. It's unclear how the O-line will be adjusted, but regardless, it's not ideal.

Running back Austin Ekeler has struggled this year, the Chargers are starting to scale back his workload quite a bit with their season all but over. They will struggle to put up points here.

As a result, the Bills offense could be very run-heavy and conservative. Buffalo doesn't need Josh Allen taking unnecessary risks or deep shots down the field. We’ve seen them become more run-heavy in the spots lately, especially last week against the Cowboys when Allen only attempted 15 passes in their 31-10 win.

I think 44.5 is too high for this game and projected it closer to 42. In the world of totals, 44 is a key number, so be sure to get 44.5 if you can or 44 at the worst.