NFL Picks: Expert Makes Week 18 Bets on Texans vs Colts, 1 More Game
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger.
NFL Picks for Week 18
Our Luck Rankings have gone 21-7 on totals since Week 12, and this game has a 10.5 rating toward the over, one of the highest ratings we’ve ever had.
Also, Ehlinger played well in the preseason before this campaign. For someone who played well in that environment, maybe a low-stakes game like this could bring out the best in him.
Also, referee Jerome Boger’s crew is on this game. Games he has officiated in his career have gone 126-95 (57%) to the over. Boger’s crew tends to call defensive holding and pass interference at a higher rate than offensive holding compared to other officiating crews.
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It sounds like Tampa Bay is going to play its starter, although how deep into the game they play is unknown. If I had to guess, the Bucs will want the starting offense to engineer a touchdown drive before putting the reserves in.
This line is based on the game line of Falcons -4, but Tampa Bay should probably be the favorite here since it’s the one quarter we’re most likely to see its starters for the entirety.
I’d say there’s a 25-30% chance this game is tied after the first quarter, so there seems to be quite a bit of value in this pick.
The Rams rank 25th in our Luck Rankings, while the Seahawks are 11th. In games where the luck differential is more than 10, the “unlucky” team has covered 57% of the time.
Teams like the Rams with zero incentive to win are 26-16 against the spread (ATS) against a team like the Seahawks, which is playing for its season, in the final week of the season.
With Tyler Lockett possibly at less than 100% and potential rain in the forecast, we could see a lower-scoring game. With that, I like getting six points with the Rams here.