NFL Picks, Predictions | Monday Night Football Doubleheader Bets

NFL Picks, Predictions | Monday Night Football Doubleheader Bets

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for the Monday Night Football doubleheader to find Packers vs Giants picks and Eagles vs Cowboys picks for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.

For now, let's get into my NFL picks, predictions for the Monday Night Football doubleheader.

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Packers vs Giants Odds, Picks

• Somehow, neither of these teams has lost in 29 days. That didn't seem possible a month ago, but I guess that makes this a marquee matchup, with the Packers now solidly favored to make the playoffs.
• It looks like the ugly weather weekend will spill over into our Monday night doubleheader. It looks like a cold and windy night in the Big Apple, with evening temperatures in the 40s and winds over 10 mph.
• The Giants have a rest advantage coming out of the bye, but the Packers get the extra day into Monday and played last week with extra rest after Thanksgiving, so that mostly evens things out.
• The Packers will be without speedy WR Christian Watson, who reinjured his hamstring after finally breaking out over the last few weeks.

The Packers are clearly the better team, especially as Tommy DeVito continues to start for the Giants.

DeVito may have won a couple games, but that was against Washington and New England. Green Bay is beating real opponents — Chargers, Lions and Chiefs — and genuinely looks like a playoff team with Jordan Love playing the best ball of his career.

Green Bay's pass rush is also trending up and that could be the key advantage here against a Giants offensive line that's been miserable all season. The Packers' line has been great at pass blocking, too, and should hold up against Wink Martindale's heavy pass rush.

The Packers are fifth in DVOA over the last five weeks, including top 10 in defense. Road Monday night favorites between three and seven points are 59% ATS. This also sets up as a solid teaser spot, even on the road, if you trust the Packers.

Even with a recent downswing, primetime unders continue to be very profitable. They're still 61% the last four years and 69% this season, and games featuring a home underdog have gone under 61% of the time over the last three seasons.

Windy weather also favors the under, with games featuring 10-plus mph winds a ridiculous 126-68-1 to the under (64.9%) over the last three seasons.

We shouldn't fear the low total since games at 37 or below have gone 28-8-1 to the under (78%) the last four calendar years. The Giants defense has been far better at home, actually top 10 by DVOA, and Giants unders are 9-3.

The Packers typically play slow, so that helps. Go with the under.

I lean Green Bay, but it's still a young team on the road on Monday night, and the fact that I like the under also makes six points a lot. I'll stick with all those under trends — there are far too many and way too strong to ignore.

Titans vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

• More weather updates! It will be a balmy 65 degrees in Miami, but it still looks windy, with winds around 12 mph expected.
• Be careful about teasing the Dolphins. Many big favorites end up at -13.5 on the spread specifically as teaser protection, since a teaser only gets you to Miami -7.5 and doesn't cross that important key number, robbing you of most of the potential teaser value. That said, six of Miami's nine wins have come by at least 14 points.
• Don't look now, but Miami's defense may have caught up — or even passed — its offense. The Dolphins rank third in both passing and overall defense by DVOA the last five weeks. It's pretty clear that the return of Jalen Ramsey and a little time to figure out Vic Fangio's system has set this defense in motion.

An under against the mighty Dolphins offense? Really?

Miami's defense is really good now, and it's been even better at home, but the Dolphins are bad against outside runs, and that's one area the Titans have been elite running the ball. Tennessee is also much better in the first half, when the Dolphins defense hasn't been as good, and we know Mike Vrabel thrives in the underdog role. Could the Titans run the ball early, chew up clock, and at least keep things close by limiting possessions and points?

Besides, it's a primetime under. Even with some of the primetime overs lately, unders are still very profitable for the season at a 69% hit rate, and primetime unders are 61% the last four years.

The windy conditions also favor the under, with games featuring 10-plus mph winds a ridiculous 126-68-1 to the under (64.9%) the last three seasons.

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What an absurdly low price for a guy to get 150 receiving yards — a career day for most — but guess what? We're betting it anyway, windy weather and Hill injury and all!

The Titans are a pass funnel, and they've already allowed seven 100-yard games to receivers this season. Hill has eight 100-yard games himself, which is why his actual receiving yards line is as high as 110.5 at some books, a completely ridiculous and unprecedented number.

But that's what happens when a guy is still chasing 2,000 yards this late in the season, and that's exactly why we're betting it. Why not run up some extra yards against a bad pass D when you're chasing an NFL record and an OPOY win?

Hill has six games with at least 146 receiving yards — that's literally half his games this season.

You can bet Hill and other player props for Titans vs. Dolphins using DFS apps like PrizePicks and Betr or social sportsbooks like Fliff!

I'm typically not too interested in a game with such a wide spread, and the Dolphins offense is too scary for me to get particularly excited about an under.

I'm a sucker for a good Tyreek Hill bet though, so keep an eye on the app and maybe we'll roll over some of our Hill winnings from last week for another Hill play on Monday night if he looks like a full go and the weather isn't too bad.