We have you covered with a total of six NFL player prop picks for Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots on Sunday, February 8.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for both teams in Sunday's big game, including predictions for Kenneth Walker, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Super Bowl Sunday.
NFL Player Props — Super Bowl
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Kenneth Walker Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)
You are paying a bit of juice on this line, but these odds are too good to pass up.
Kenneth Walker has been playing 10% more snaps without Zach Charbonnet, and he's been involved in the passing game.
He's hit the over at this number in each of the past three games and gets a great matchup against New England in this spot.
The Patriots have allowed the 7th-most targets and 5th-most receptions to RBs this season despite allowing the 11th-fewest passing attempts.
Walker is a great receiving back, and with the Pats being the best run defense in the playoffs, the Seahawks will likely involve Walker more with screens.
I have Walker projected to hit the over at this number at a 68% clip, making this a great bet.
Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 2.5 Receptions (-125)
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Hunter Henry Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
By Brit Devine
If you can't run the ball on Seattle (they have one of the best run defenses in the league) and you can't pass deep on them (5th-fewest yards allowed on passes of 10+ yards), then where is the ball supposed to go?
Enter Hunter Henry and his average depth of target of 8.1 yards against a Seattle defense that allowed the 6th-most yards to TEs in the regular season, the 3rd-most targets, and the 5th-most receptions.
Henry also fares much better against zone coverage, as he really isn't an elite separator at this stage of his career, and Seattle just happened to run zone at the 5th-highest rate in the league in the regular season.
Henry might be the most-targeted Patriots player in this game, which has this line sitting far too low.
Pick: Hunter Henry Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Seahawks vs. Patriots
George Holani Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The George Holani fade against the Rams went as expected. He was much more involved as a pass-catcher than as a rusher.
Holani played 23 snaps but finished with more targets (4) than rush attempts (3). He stumbled to four yards on his three carries.
Kenneth Walker III should continue to get nearly all of the rushing work, and Seattle gets another tough matchup on the ground this Sunday.
Pick: George Holani Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Seahawks vs. Patriots
TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)
TreVeyon Henderson played just four snaps in New England’s win over Denver in the AFC Championship Game.
Even in difficult conditions, New England still dropped back 29 times. Henderson didn’t run a single route.
It’s a great matchup for pass-catching running backs, but I’m expecting all of the receiving production to go to Rhamondre Stevenson.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Sam Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
Sam Darnold has been playing some incredible football this season, and he's been even better in the playoffs when needed.
When looking at full-season numbers, the matchup is above average for both the passing game and the rushing game, but the Patriots have been a whole different defense recently. Their rush defense has been the best in the league in recent weeks.
In the playoffs, the Patriots allowed 30 rushing yards on 12 attempts to Chargers RBs, 31 rushing yards on 18 rushing attempts to Texans RBs, and 54 rushing yards on 19 rushing attempts to Broncos RBs.
The Seahawks have been a run-first offense this season, but without Zach Charbonnet and in this tough matchup, they'll likely be forced to rely on the pass more.
I have Darnold projected for two passing attempts over this number, making this a great bet.
Pick: Sam Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Under 17.5 Yards (-118)
By Brit Devine
This is my favorite bet for the Super Bowl.
During the regular season, Stefon Diggs went under this line in eight of 17 games and had an aDOT of 8.7 yards.
In the playoffs, Diggs has gone under this line in all three games and has an aDOT of 5.5 yards, which is the lowest aDOT of any non-RB on the team (of the 9 non-RBs who have have been targeted in the postseason).
Including the playoffs, Diggs has 2.46 yards per route run against single-high safety looks, and it's 2.03 against two-high safety looks. Including the playoffs, Seattle played two-high safety looks at the 6th-highest rate in the league.
With the Patriots' WR rotation fully healthy for this game, Diggs' upside is capped, and the coverage he will see does not favor him.
His role has turned into the quick-release option, as Drake Maye's time to throw has been reduced by a considerable margin this postseason, either by game plan or pressure.
Seattle should be able to generate enough pressure to continue this trend.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Under 17.5 Yards (-118)
