NFL Predictions Divisional Round: Data-Driven Picks for Deebo Samuel, Aaron Jones
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Deebo Samuel.
NFL Predictions Divisional Round (Saturday): Data-Driven Picks
Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has seven bets for the Saturday Divisional Round slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Ravens
By Billy Ward
ESPNBet does us the favor of listing alternate options for most of their player props, with quarterback rushing attempts being no exception.
That’s where I’m looking for Lamar Jackson. He’s carried the ball at least 11 times in seven of the 16 games he’s played this season. That’s a hit rate of just under 44%, or +130 implied odds.
In most of those games, he had a full complement of healthy pass-catchers. Since losing tight end Mark Andrews, he’s cleared that threshold 60% of the time. Andrews is “not expected” to be active, according to reports on Friday.
The other factor is the weather, which should make it harder to throw the ball. The current forecast has sustained wind speeds of around 20 mph, with a wind chill of around 10 degrees and possible snow.
I’ll be laddering this bet from over 9.5 (+100) all the way to over 11.5 (+230), with the 10.5 being my single favorite option.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (+150)
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Texans vs. Ravens
By Nick Giffen
Edwards racked up 13 touchdowns in 17 games in the regular season. He owned Baltimore's touches inside the 5-yard line, recording 19 of the team's 30 rush attempts (63.3%) from that distance. He scored 12 times in those 19 carries.
His red-zone usage was low over the first five weeks with just three carries, but since then he's had 36 in 11 games (not counting Week 18).
Baltimore should be able to move the ball on a Houston defense that ranked 16th in DVOA. While the Texans are second in defensive rush DVOA, there should be enough short-yardage opportunities to make Edwards a coin flip for a TD.
Despite allowing the sixth-fewest yards to RBs, the Texans have given up the 12th-most rushing TDs to the position — they’ve allowed scores when teams have gotten close.
Pick: Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+130)
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
The Luck Total of +2.8 is enough to meet our playoff criteria of a Luck Total of at least +1.0 or higher. I took over 49.5 earlier in the week and would definitely still take over 50.5.
Luck Totals above +1.0 are 10-5 to the over in the playoffs in the last six years, including a win on last week’s Luck Over between Buffalo and Pittsburgh.
Jordan Love has been playing much better in the second half of the year, which is why the Packers are third in weighted offensive DVOA. He is coming off one of the best games of any QB all season, leading Green Bay to a convincing win over Dallas in the Wild Card Round.
Meanwhile, S.F. has had multiple weeks to scheme up this game and should be able to take advantage of Green Bay’s defensive struggles, where they rank just 27th by DVOA, including 28th by weighted DVOA, which adds more weight to more recent games.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110)
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Billy Ward
The obvious favorite in this market is Christian McCaffrey, who is +150 on DraftKings and +200 on FanDuel. He also leads our projections with 91 rushing yards, a solid lead over the No. 2 player: Aaron Jones at 67.
That makes this a bet against McCaffrey as much as one on Jones. Conventional wisdom says that both teams’ game scripts favor McCaffrey. The 49ers are favored over Green Bay by nearly 10 points, which should tilt San Francisco toward the run.
However, that doesn’t mean it’s all from McCaffrey. If San Francisco gets some early production from the passing game, it could take it easy on the star back while grinding out a big lead. There’s no reason to risk McCaffrey if the game is easily in hand.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco is far more easily attacked on the ground. The 49ers rank 15th in DVOA against the run, compared to third against the pass. Green Bay will want to keep running the ball as long as possible, which means a heavy dose of Jones.
Jones has at least 20 carries in every game of the Packers’ four-game win streak, with a minimum yardage total of 111 in those games.
Keep an eye on the status of backup AJ Dillon. He shouldn’t take a major share of the work from Jones, but even a few carries could be enough to tank Jones’ odds of leading the slate. Dillon is officially questionable as of Friday.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards of the Round — Aaron Jones (+500)
Packers vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
Green Bay has the fifth-worst explosive play rate allowed against the pass and the seventh-worst rushing yards per attempt mark allowed to WRs.
Deebo Samuel is great against zone coverage, and while the Packers haven’t played zone at a high rate compared to previous seasons, they’re in the bottom of the NFL in terms of explosive play rate when playing zone.
Basically, expect chunk plays for Samuel, plus increased usage given we’re in the postseason. He has cleared this combined rushing and receiving line of 80.5 in 6-of-8 career playoff games (not counting last year’s 49ers-Eagles game when San Francisco had no quarterback).
There could be inclement weather in this game in the form of wind and rain. Samuel should have extra looks and potential explosive plays if Packers defenders can’t find their footing.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
I laid out my argument for a Samuel spike performance above, and I'm pushing it a bit further here with most rushing and receiving yards in the game at +450. He's a much better bet than someone like Brandon Aiyuk, who's the fourth favorite in this market.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Most Rushing + Receiving Yards in Game (+450)
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
Samuel logged multi-touchdown games in 3-of-15 contests this season. On the surface, it’s not a great hit rate, but there are some key things to remember about Samuel’s season.
That includes a game where he barely played because of injury (Week 6), his return from injury when he only played around half the snaps (Week 10), and Week 18 when he only played one-third of snaps because San Francisco rested its key players.
In other words, Samuel has scored multiple times in 3-of-12 games when playing a normal snap rate.
Pick: Deebo Samuel 2+ TDs (+700)
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