NFL Predictions Week 15: Data-Driven Picks for Matthew Stafford, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford.
NFL Predictions Week 15: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the bets that our NFL Predictive Analytics staff is targeting for Sunday NFL Week 15. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Bears vs. Browns
By Nick Giffen
I’m rolling with the Luck Rankings and taking the Luck Under even though this has potential as a reverse signal with the Luck Total sitting at -8.2.
The Browns have been great on defense all year, though they have regressed from their ridiculously efficient start. As for the Bears, their defense, especially against the run, has turned into a solid unit.
Just last week, Cleveland was involved in a 58-point game with Jacksonville — the total should have been around 45 or 46, according to our Expected Score metric. Similar was true the week before against the Rams (55 actual vs. 46 expected).
The same is true of the Bears, who beat Detroit 28-13 in a game where both offenses hovered around success rates of 35%. Expected Score had that as a 21-11 contest, coming in a full nine points over expectation.
Add in a strong chance for rain, which could force an extra fumble or two, and a 15 mph crosswind making passing and kicking more difficult, and the under is the way to go.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-108)
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49ers vs. Cardinals
By Billy Ward
If there were ever a game where we could anticipate the scoring being front loaded, it’s this one between the 49ers and Cardinals.
The 49ers average about two more points in the first half of games, but I expect that difference would be higher if we removed their three-week losing streak where they were playing catch up for long stretches of the second half.
That probably won’t be a problem against the tanking Cardinals with San Francisco favored by 12.5 points. The likeliest game flow here is the 49ers pulling away early, before switching to clock-control mode down the stretch as they look to shorten the game and give their starters a break.
Here’s where I would normally mention that the Cardinals also tend to do most of their scoring early, averaging a pathetic 6.6 points in the second half this season. That probably doesn’t matter in this game as it’s hard to see them scoring in either half against an elite Niners defense.
One last piece of evidence: The first time these teams met, they scored a combined 31 points in the first half, and just 20 in the second.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half: First Half (-120)
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Commanders vs. Rams
By Nick Giffen
The Commanders are operating on a historically bad level in recent weeks with a defensive pass DVOA that has averaged 53.9% over their last seven games (more positive is bad). For context, the second-worst pass defense in the NFL by DVOA belongs to the Cardinals, who sit at 23.1%.
In that same time frame, Washington has forced two turnover-worthy plays on opposing QBs. One was to Mac Jones, and the other to Tyrod Taylor. They didn’t even force Tommy DeVito into a turnover-worthy play.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been brilliant this year with just a 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate, which puts him second best among qualifying QBs.
Stafford has just three INTs in seven games with Cooper Kupp playing a full complement of snaps. With the Rams favored by nearly a touchdown, they may also be able to abandon the passing game relatively quickly.
I have value on this to -160.
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
Commanders vs. Rams
By Billy Ward
Our projections have two players essentially tied for the top passing yards estimation in Week 15: Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. Both players are involved in games with totals north of 50 in what projects to be the two best scoring environments on the slate.
However, there’s a big discrepancy between the odds of each passer to lead the slate in yardage. Prescott is the favorite at +450 while Stafford has longer odds at +700.
On top of that, the matchup is far softer for Stafford and the Rams. The Commanders have become the worst passing defense in the NFL following their trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat, ranking dead last in both DVOA and yards allowed per pass play.
The drawback for Stafford is the game environment against Washington, which has the potential to turn into a blowout and limit passing. However, the Commanders have an aggressive offense and are up against a relatively bad Rams pass defense, which should enable them to keep this one close – and keep Stafford throwing.
As a final note, this game is being played indoors at SoFi Stadium while Prescott and the Cowboys are on the road in Buffalo. The current weather report for Cowboys-Bills has rain throughout with wind speeds in the double digits.
Pick: Most Passing Yards on Sunday: Matthew Stafford (+700)
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